Abortion Debate Takes Center Stage in CD1 Democratic Primary

A substantial number of undecided Democratic voters in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District primary on July 30 could mean that abortion will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. Six Democrats are vying for the nomination to challenge incumbent Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., who has consistently held his seat for over a decade and faces Republicans Robert Backie and Kim George in his primary race.

Polls show no clear front-runner in the Democratic race. Noble Predictive Insights conducted a poll from June 25-27, revealing that 35% of respondents were unsure of their choice. Another poll by SurveyUSA found that a third of voters were undecided, and a U.S. Term Limits survey reported a quarter of respondents were uncertain, with no single candidate surpassing 20% support in any poll.

David Byler, chief of research at Noble, remarked, “This race is a mess. None of these candidates are particularly well-known, and on the Democratic side, there’s no single issue that focuses and divides up primaries.” The Democratic candidates—Andrei Cherny, Marlene Galán-Woods, Conor O’Callaghan, Amish Shah, Andrew Horne, and Kurt Kroemer—aim to unseat Schweikert, who is considered vulnerable.

According to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, CD1 leans slightly Republican with a 2.6% vote spread. In the 2022 elections, Democrat Jevin Hodge narrowly lost to Schweikert by just under 1% of the total votes. GOP consultant Barrett Marson suggested Schweikert’s tenure might be nearing its end but stopped short of a guarantee.

Noble CEO Mike Noble highlighted patterns from 2022, noting that the party controlling the White House generally loses congressional seats in midterm elections. He suggested that the close race and late fundraising for Hodge in 2022 make Schweikert’s seat a target for Democrats this cycle. “I think the Democrats aren’t going to make the same mistake,” said Noble.

The Cook Political Report rates 22 House races as toss-ups, including CD1. Schweikert stands out, having led in second-quarter fundraising among the Republicans in these contested races, with just under $380,000 raised in net contributions and $1.5 million in total campaign funds. Combined, the Democratic candidates have a total of over $2.5 million in campaign funds, but none individually has half as much as Schweikert’s warchest.

Former Arizona Democratic Party chair Andrei Cherny leads Democratic fundraising with $371,000 in net contributions, ending the quarter with $693,000. Marlene Galán-Woods raised $347,000 during the quarter, and Cherny has amassed nearly $2.4 million throughout the election cycle. Conor O’Callaghan, a first-time political candidate, has raised $2.1 million, while Galán-Woods and former state Rep. Amish Shah have each raised $1.5 million. Small business owner Andrew Horne, a Scottsdale native, raised $900,000 and took a loan to bring his campaign receipts to $1.5 million. Kroemer, the former CEO of the American Red Cross Arizona and New Mexico Region, has pulled in almost $300,000 this cycle.

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have focused on abortion as a crucial issue. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Lauryn Fanguen stated, “David Schweikert can’t hide the reality of his anti-choice extremism. Arizonans know that Schweikert celebrated as women across the country had their reproductive freedom ripped away, and voters will hold him accountable for his continued extremism this November.”

Given the significant number of undecided voters, Noble believes the candidate who communicates the most compelling message on abortion will likely win the primary. Noble Predictive Insights’ poll indicated nearly half of respondents considered abortion the most important issue, followed by health care and education, each cited by 11% of respondents.