Trump Voters’ Economic Fury: Unpacking Their Valid Concerns

Inflation rates have eased recently, allowing real incomes—wages adjusted for inflation—to recover to levels seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. As Democrats campaigned in 2024 highlighting the economy’s resilience, President Joe Biden emphasized the U.S. economy as “the strongest in the world.”

Despite these claims, Republicans have regained the presidency and are poised to reclaim both houses of Congress, largely by presenting a bleak economic outlook. President-elect Donald Trump touted his first-term economic achievements but characterized the current economic landscape as a “cesspool of ruin.”

Economists argue that this longing for Trump’s economic period is misguided. However, the Republican narrative about current economic struggles has resonated with voters, illustrating a significant disconnect between economic indicators and public sentiment.

Some analysts suggest that the discontent regarding economic conditions stems from perception issues, coining the term “vibecession” to describe this phenomenon. While macroeconomic indicators may appear favorable, many American households express valid concerns about their financial situations.

As a political economist and regional planner, I delved into the reasons behind this divergence between economic data and everyday experiences. My findings indicate significant reasons for disillusionment among approximately 20 million U.S. households. The federal government’s method of calculating real incomes tends to reflect the experiences of higher-income households more accurately than those of working-class and middle-class families.

Officially, real income has seen a recovery. After peaking at a 40-year high inflation rate of 9% in June 2022, real incomes for typical households fell from $81,210 in 2019 to $77,540 in 2022, as wage growth could not keep pace with inflation. In 2023, real incomes rebounded to $80,610. Yet, consumer sentiment remains dismal, reminiscent of economic recessions, with only 41% of Americans feeling their financial situation is good or excellent, down from 50% in 2019, according to Pew research.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates real incomes using the consumer price index, which averages prices for a selection of goods and services based on typical spending patterns. However, this method can misrepresent economic realities, especially concerning housing, the largest expenditure for most Americans. The bureau assumes that housing accounts for 36.5% of all household expenditures. In contrast, nearly 15% of U.S. households, particularly renters, spend over half their income on housing, leaving little for other essentials.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recognizes its methods may not accurately reflect spending realities. This discrepancy is particularly pronounced in low-income households, which are disproportionately affected by rising housing costs. Thus, while real incomes rise in official statistics, many families continue to struggle to afford essential goods and services.

Further analysis reveals that the consumer price index also inadequately captures healthcare costs. Although it assumes households spend about 8% of their income on healthcare, studies indicate that middle-income families spend around 21%, with low-income households seeing that figure rise to 34%. Furthermore, the index downplays expenses like child care and higher education, which can significantly burden family finances.

With the economy being paramount in voters’ minds, the 2024 election illustrated a clear divide. Exit polls indicated that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris garnered support from families earning under $30,000 and those above $100,000, while Trump found favor among those making between $30,000 and $99,999—a demographic often caught in financial strife.

This election was not solely about pessimistic “vibes.” For millions of families, it reflected tangible economic pain that does not always align with government data. Understanding this disconnect is essential for future economic policy development.