Tension Mounts as AZ Legislature Control Hangs in the Balance Amid Ongoing Vote Count

In a pivotal election season, Democrats invested unprecedented funds in an effort to gain control of Arizona’s legislature. However, preliminary results indicate that their campaign did not convince voters in key swing districts, leaving the Republican majority intact for now.

As of early Wednesday morning, it appeared that Democrats would manage to secure a split in the 30-member state Senate, yet Republicans held a slight majority in the House of Representatives. Final outcomes remain uncertain as county officials continue to count ballots throughout the week.

Feeling optimistic, Democrats viewed this election as their best chance to reclaim power since the mid-1960s. They spent over $10 million targeting a handful of battleground races. Meanwhile, Republicans countered with nearly $7.4 million to safeguard their narrow majorities across both chambers.

The overwhelming majority of spending was concentrated in 13 competitive races, primarily located in suburban districts around Phoenix and Tucson, with a significant portion of the funds focusing on just five key contests.

One of the most expensive races took place in Chandler’s District 13, where outside groups contributed $2.43 million. Of this sum, over $1.5 million aimed to support Democratic candidates Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales, while approximately $880,000 was utilized to back incumbent Republican Julie Willoughby and former GOP lawmaker Jeff Weninger.

As of the latest reporting, with 91% of precincts tallied, the candidates were closely matched, with Reese leading but only 200 votes ahead of Weninger, and Willoughby trailing by just 300 votes. Gonzales was in fourth place, closely following Willoughby.

Significantly, one seat in this district is currently held by a Democrat, making it crucial for their party to capture at least one of the two available seats.

In north Phoenix’s District 2, an intense Senate battle garnered $2.35 million in outside funding for incumbent Republican Shawnna Bolick and Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert. Bolick initially trailed Schwiebert but regained ground, entering Wednesday with a lead of just 180 votes.

Conversely, Democrats appeared on track to capture a southern Arizona Senate seat long held by Republicans. John McLean, a former Republican, currently leads Vince Leach by nearly 5,000 votes in Legislative District 17, covering suburban Tucson.

In other key races, incumbents from both parties worked to fend off challengers. Democratic senators Christine Marsh and Eva Burch appeared to maintain their seats, while Republican J.D. Mesnard faced a tight race against Democrat Sharon Winters, leading by only about 950 votes.

In the House, a potential seat swap played out in neighboring districts. Democratic incumbent Keith Seaman trailed Republican Chris Lopez by nearly 700 votes in Legislative District 16. However, newcomer Kevin Volk looks poised to unseat GOP Rep. Cory McGarr in District 17, where McGarr trails his seatmate by approximately 1,700 votes.

In Mesa-based District 9, incumbents Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman maintained a solid lead over their Republican challengers, while Rep. Michele Pena successfully defended her position in the heavily Democratic Legislative District 23, extending from southwest Phoenix to Yuma.