Shifting Demographics and the Political Impact of Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric in Key Swing States

Editor’s note: This five-day series delves into voter priorities in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin ahead of the presidential election. Their outcomes could significantly influence the nation’s future.

The political landscape is evolving in swing states, particularly regarding immigration. Recently, Arizona Republicans proposed a plan targeting migrants that aligns with former President Donald Trump’s hardline stance. State Senate President Warren Petersen criticized the Biden administration, asserting that “Arizona is in a crisis,” a sentiment echoed by various GOP lawmakers employing aggressive rhetoric against immigrants.

Despite this, significant opposition emerged from Latino and immigrant communities who protested the proposed legislation. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offer contrasting visions for the estimated 11 million undocumented individuals in the U.S. While Harris attempts to reclaim a tougher security stance by endorsing a previously stalled bipartisan border deal, Trump advocates for mass deportations, hinting at deploying the National Guard for heightened enforcement.

Nationwide, immigration remains a critical issue for voters. Although illegal border crossings have recently declined, the topic continues to dominate Republican discourse. Recent polling suggests that strategies based solely on border security may overlook diversifying voter concerns, particularly among emerging populations in swing states.

In Arizona, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed the GOP’s immigration initiative, prompting Republicans to reframe it as the “Secure the Border Act” for ballot consideration. Given the narrow margin by which Biden won Arizona in 2020, the upcoming ballot measure tests the GOP’s immigration strategies, particularly in a state anticipating high voter engagement.

While Republicans view immigration as a rallying point for galvanizing lower ballot races, progressive groups are mobilizing resistance through canvassing and voter registration. Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) opposes the Secure the Border Act, which they claim echoes the controversial SB 1070 law. Chief of Staff Abril Gallardo emphasized, “Arizonans are sick of Republicans trying to resurrect the era of separating families.”

The proposed measure has faced criticism for its punitive measures, including criminalizing unlawful border crossing and enabling local police to arrests suspected illegal immigrants. Such actions could undermine judicial decisions asserting federal jurisdiction over immigration enforcement. LUCHA plans to engage with voters to defeat the initiative, aiming for outreach that includes knocking on over three million doors by November.

Polling indicates strong support among Latino voters for paths to citizenship over punitive measures. In 2020, Latinos comprised about 20% of Arizona’s electorate; the upcoming election could see over 600,000 Latino voters participating. Other swing states face similar dynamics, with notable Latino populations exerting increasing electoral influence.

Georgia’s Latino voters, however, report feeling neglected, with 51% stating they were not contacted by either party, despite high voting intent. This sentiment echoed across other swing states, underscoring a missed opportunity for outreach within these communities.

In Wisconsin, where approximately 180,000 eligible Latino voters reside, immigration remains a pivotal concern, reinforced by state demographics and regional economic reliance on immigrant labor. While controversial legislation to improve access to driver’s licenses for immigrants stalled, widespread support exists among advocacy groups.

Newly naturalized voters are emerging as a significant electoral bloc, reflecting growing immigration dynamics. In fiscal year 2023, over 878,000 individuals obtained U.S. citizenship, a slight drop from previous years but indicative of an enduring trend. These new voters tend to participate at higher rates than native-born citizens, with polls indicating nearly all plan to vote in upcoming elections.

The federal landscape is complex, with a failed $118 billion bipartisan immigration proposal sidelined due to political discord. The deal aimed to enhance border security while restructuring the asylum process. If passed, it would have allowed the Biden administration to implement stricter border controls, a focus that likely hinges on the Democrats’ performance in the November elections.

While Trump promises a return to mass deportations reminiscent of past administrations, advocacy groups caution against such measures, emphasizing the potential economic fallout and societal impacts, especially on families. A significant portion of the U.S. workforce comprises immigrants, and deportation efforts could disrupt essential labor sectors.

Public sentiment appears to favor a more compassionate approach towards undocumented individuals. Recent surveys show that a majority of American voters support pathways to legal residency over strict deportation policies. Current political narratives, especially those leaning toward punitive measures, face substantial public resistance.