Republicans Surge Ahead in AZ House, Dethroning Democratic Incumbents

In a surprising turn of events, Arizona Republicans are on track to secure a third new seat in the state House of Representatives, with the possibility of adding a fourth amid a Democratic effort to break a 60-year GOP stronghold. The latest ballot counts from Maricopa County revealed a significant shift in the competitive Legislative District 9 race.

Democratic state Rep. Seth Blattman saw his narrow lead over Republican Kylie Barber diminish drastically after the latest results were tallied. From a position of second place, Blattman has now slipped to fourth, trailing Barber and fellow Republican Mary Ann Mendoza, who are locked in a close contest for the two available seats.

Currently, Barber holds a slight edge to claim the second seat, with Mendoza only 150 votes behind. Blattman, previously in a position of strength, is now approximately 280 votes off the mark.

This potential GOP victory adds to a disappointing landscape for Democrats, who invested substantial resources—over $10 million from external groups—into efforts aimed at flipping the legislature. Their strategy included extensive mailers, advertising campaigns, and paid canvassers who engaged voters directly.

Prior to the latest counts, Republicans were already projected to capture two Democratic-held seats. A successful bid against Blattman would elevate their numbers to 34 in the 60-member chamber.

The race in Legislative District 2 in north Phoenix is also tightening. Democrat Stephanie Simacek has seen her lead shrink dramatically. After Thursday’s counts showed her ahead by 400 votes, the latest results now place her in a precarious position, just 160 votes behind Republican Justin Wilmeth and only 34 votes ahead of Ari Daniel Bradshaw.

Simacek aimed to preserve Democratic control of the seat currently held by Judy Schwiebert, who is challenging for a Senate position but appears unlikely to succeed.

No significant lead changes were reported in Senate races, although Republicans are inching closer to securing two Democratic-held seats while hoping to retain control of another. In District 9, Sen. Eva Burch’s lead over GOP challenger Robert Scantlebury has narrowed from 1,300 votes to just over 1,000. Meanwhile, Sen. Brian Fernandez, representing a heavily Democratic district, is maintaining a lead of about 1,300 votes against newcomer Michelle Altherr.

In Legislative District 17 in Tucson, Republican Vince Leach has made significant gains, reducing Democrat John McLean’s lead from over 1,300 votes to just 355. This election cycle has proven to be pivotal as both parties vie for control in a shifting political landscape.