Republicans Gain Slight Edge in Crucial Races as They Aim to Retain Legislative Power

As election results continue to roll in, both major parties are closely watching the unfolding dynamics in Arizona’s legislative races. The tight margins in several contests may lead to recounts, indicating a highly competitive election cycle.

Initial tallies on election night showed Democrats leading in various swing districts. However, as more votes were counted throughout the week, some Republicans have managed to close the gap or even take the lead. Unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s Office suggest that if current trends hold, Republicans are poised to maintain a 16-14 majority in the Senate and expand their House majority to 32-28.

Paul Bentz, a pollster from HighGround Public Affairs Consultants, observed shifting voting patterns in the state. He noted, “As metro Phoenix grows more progressive, there’s a parallel increase in conservative support in the surrounding areas, particularly in Pinal and Yavapai County.”

In Legislative District 16, encompassing parts of Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa Counties, Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman trails Republican Chris Lopez and Rep. Teresa Martinez. As of November 7, he was down about 3% to Lopez for the district’s second House seat, indicating a challenging situation for the Democrat.

Republicans are also leading in crucial Senate races within Legislative Districts 2 and 4, significantly impacting the Senate’s control. In LD2, Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick holds a nearly 3% lead over Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert.

Conversely, Democrats are maintaining slim leads in both Legislative District 17 races, potentially flipping those seats if results hold. Democrat John McLean is leading Republican Vince Leach by just under 1%, while his House running mate, Kevin Volk, also tops GOP incumbents with leads of nearly 3% and 4% over Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr, respectively.

Should current results persist, Democrats may suffer a setback in Legislative District 13, where Republican Rep. Julie Willoughby is ahead of Democrat Brandy Reese by over 1.5%. In the same district, Republican Jeff Weninger leads over Reese as well.

Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, believes that Donald Trump’s unexpected overperformance in the presidential race may have positively influenced Republican candidates further down the ballot. “If the situation were reversed at the top of the ticket, the races would likely appear quite different,” he remarked.

Several contests remain exceedingly close. In LD4, Republican Rep. Matt Gress narrowly leads Democrat Kelli Butler by approximately 2%, while Butler herself edges out Republican Pamela Carter by a mere 0.07%.

Notably, a legal change in 2022 raised the voter recount threshold from 0.1% to 0.5%, sharpening the focus on these closely contested races. For example, the Legislative District 9 House race sees Rep. Lorena Austin maintaining a 1.5% lead over fellow Democrat Seth Blattman.

Recounts would only take place post-canvas, scheduled for November 21. In a noteworthy outcome, Republican Rep. Michele Pena is holding her ground in Legislative District 23, despite the district’s Democratic lean of nearly 17%.

Pena’s lead over Democrat Mariana Sandoval exceeds 3%, while she also tops Matias Rosales by around 5%. GOP consultant Doug Cole noted the emergence of new Republican-leaning areas within a predominately Democratic district.

Sen. Brian Fernandez, a Democrat from Yuma, holds a narrow lead of just under 2% over Republican Michelle Altherr, reflecting the increasingly competitive nature of elections in the region compared to previous years.