Republican Veteran Battles Challenger in High-Stakes LD16 Showdown

In Legislative District 16, incumbent Republican Senator T.J. Shope faces a challenge from first-time candidate Stacey Seaman, a Democrat and daughter of longtime state representative Keith Seaman.

Democrats view this Senate seat as a crucial opportunity to shift the balance of power in the state legislature. The district is categorized as “competitive” by the Independent Redistricting Commission, although it leans 4.2% in favor of Republican candidates. Recent voter registration statistics reveal that Republicans lead by 6,407 registered voters in the district, hinting at a potentially close race in the upcoming general election.

Shope, representing parts of Pima and Pinal counties, has held the Senate seat after serving four terms in the House. His challenger, Stacey Seaman, comes from a political family and has a background in education. She decided to run for office after the Democratic Party encouraged her to take the plunge, feeling compelled to step up for democracy despite her pursuit of a PhD.

Seaman emphasized the importance of public education funding and sustainable water policies for the district, especially in light of its agricultural focus. “Making sure that we are using our water supply correctly and that we have the water we need to continue to grow is hugely important,” she stated.

On the other hand, Shope highlighted his efforts to enhance infrastructure, such as securing funding for the expansion of Interstate 10. He believes this will significantly benefit local residents who commute to Phoenix. “Seventy percent of the people who were employed for a living drive to Phoenix on a daily basis, so it’s going to be life-changing,” he remarked.

In a notable position on reproductive rights, Shope voted alongside Democrats to repeal a strict abortion ban. Seaman is pro-choice and indicated that the lack of reproductive rights motivated her candidacy.

Financially, Seaman has started strong, leading in both fundraising and spending since the primary. She raised $87,588 and has spent $73,652, compared to Shope’s $42,879 in fundraising and $68,656 in expenditures. However, Shope enters the final campaign phase with a larger available budget of $88,545, while Seaman has $53,515 remaining.

In contrast, another Democrat, John McLean, running in LD17—another Republican-leaning district—secured over $275,599.48 since the primary, outpacing his GOP opponent, Vince Leach, who raised $158,605.

GOP consultant Barrett Marson expressed confidence in Shope’s victory, stating, “TJ Shope is an institution in Pinal County.” Despite this, Seaman remains optimistic, stating that her interactions with voters have highlighted ongoing issues in the district, raising questions about the effectiveness of long-serving incumbents.

As the election nears, Shope recalls his previous success, having defeated his last Democratic opponent by 11%. He expresses cautious optimism about maintaining a comfortable lead, acknowledging the challenges ahead.