Parties Set Sights on Swing Districts to Flip the Legislature

Republicans and Democrats are intensifying their efforts to gain legislative majorities in Arizona’s swing districts. The focus is particularly sharp in Legislative District 16, which straddles parts of Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima counties. With a narrow 3.6% vote advantage, Republicans are targeting the House seat occupied by Democrat Rep. Keith Seaman of Casa Grande.

In the 2022 election, Seaman narrowly defeated Republican challenger Rob Hudelson, winning by just over half a percent. Seaman remains the sole Democrat candidate in the current race, campaigning on local issues.

“We give voters something new to think about and something to vote for,” Seaman stated, underscoring his position. The Democratic incumbent faces formidable opponents, including House Majority Whip Teresa Martinez and Republican Chris Lopez.

Martinez, a seasoned leader in the House GOP caucus, previously secured more votes than Seaman in the last election, while Lopez emphasizes education reforms and border security in his campaign. He criticized Democrats for opposing a proposed teacher salary increase.

Seaman agrees on the necessity for increased teacher pay and advocates for equitable solutions to address educational challenges. “The number one reason teachers leave is inadequate salaries and excessive classroom sizes,” he said.

Republicans are targeting Seaman with a campaign to reclaim some influence in the House, aiming for a broader majority. The Republican State Leadership Committee has initiated advertising efforts highlighting Seaman’s opposition to a legislative measure increasing penalties for fentanyl-related crimes.

Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed the bill, citing concerns over its potential effects on the state’s Good Samaritan Law and the risk of deterring emergency responses during overdoses. RSLC spokesperson Stephanie Rivera echoed sentiments emphasizing the need for legislators focused on constituents’ best interests.

Moreover, Republicans see potential gains in Legislative District 23, where incumbent Rep. Michele Pena faces a significant challenge. Despite a 17% voter spread favoring Democrats, Pena previously won the seat, contributing to the GOP’s House majority.

Pena’s opponent, Democrat Matias Rosales, has served on the San Luis city council for over a decade. He recently lambasted Pena for her support of a controversial measure permitting employers to pay tipped workers less than the minimum wage.

Rosales stated, “We need to work to expand economic opportunities here in our state and create good paying jobs.” He challenged Pena’s record and highlighted his commitment to economic development.

Amid this contentious backdrop, Rep. Alexander Kolodin has sought to bolster Pena’s campaign by publicizing a complaint lodged against Rosales, alleging misconduct involving public funds. However, an investigation by the Attorney General’s office cleared Rosales of violations.

As the November 5 general election approaches, these races will play a critical role in determining the balance of power in the Arizona House. Kolodin urged voters to scrutinize potential conflicts of interest in Rosales’s record.