Lake Faces Looming Defeat as Vote Count Approaches Conclusion

Kari Lake’s chances of becoming Arizona’s next senator appear slim, according to an analysis from Capitol Media Services.

As of Monday afternoon, fewer than 76,000 votes remained to be counted in four counties where Lake led Democrat Ruben Gallego. However, Gallego was ahead by more than 68,000 votes statewide.

While theoretically, Lake could catch up in counties like Cochise, Pinal, Yavapai, and Yuma, the math is daunting. In Yavapai County, traditionally leaning Republican, she garnered less than two-thirds of the vote.

Significantly, Maricopa County holds the largest cache of uncounted votes, with over 84,000 still outstanding, of which more than 2 million have already been tabulated. Gallego has received slightly over a million of these votes, compared to Lake’s 911,000.

The vote trend is also unfavorable for Lake in Pima County, where nearly 80,000 ballots await processing. Of the 445,000 votes counted, Lake received two votes for every three for Gallego.

Historical patterns show that the last votes counted can sometimes favor Republican candidates, as evidenced by the 2022 election cycle. Yet, this year’s active push for early voting by the GOP did not translate into a lead for Lake.

Comparably, Lake’s performance trails behind that of Donald Trump, who amassed over 1.66 million votes, while she secured 1.46 million. Meanwhile, inquiries sent to the Lake campaign went unanswered.

The critical question now is whether Lake will accept the election results, given her previous legal battles contesting her gubernatorial defeat in 2022. Courts dismissed her claims of electoral irregularities at that time.

For Gallego, the victory is bittersweet. Transitioning from the U.S. House to the Senate, he joins a Republican-led chamber that is expected to have a 53-member majority, though this falls short of the 60 needed to bypass filibusters.

Notably, this majority will facilitate the confirmation of Supreme Court nominees, a priority for the GOP. Furthermore, a Democrat will not occupy the White House for the next four years, allowing for a potential mobilization of Republican agendas.

As of Tuesday, control of the U.S. House of Representatives remains uncertain. Republicans gained one seat, raising their total to 214, while Democrats hold 204, with various races still undecided. A majority requires 218 seats in the 435-member chamber.