Kari Lake’s Path to Arizona’s Senate Seat: An Analysis of Improbability

PHOENIX — Kari Lake’s path to the U.S. Senate has effectively closed. Recent analysis by Capitol Media Services reveals that fewer than 76,000 votes remain to be counted across four counties where Lake has performed better than Democrat Ruben Gallego. However, Lake is currently trailing Gallego by over 68,000 votes, as reported by the Secretary of State’s Office.

Even with an optimistic outlook, the numbers suggest a significant challenge for Lake. In counties like Cochise, Pinal, Yavapai, and Yuma, she would need to secure nearly every remaining vote. Yet, in Yavapai County, which boasts the largest Republican margin of the group, Lake garnered less than two-thirds of the votes counted so far.

Compounding her difficulties, the bulk of the still-uncounted ballots are located in Maricopa County, where more than 84,000 votes remain. Of the 2 million votes that have already been counted in this county, Gallego has received slightly over 1 million, compared to Lake’s approximately 911,000. This translates to a troubling trend for Lake: for every nine votes counted for her, Gallego receives ten.

The disparity is even more pronounced in Pima County, which is heavily Democratic. Election officials there report nearly 63,000 ballots yet to be counted. Out of over 461,000 tallied so far, Gallego has claimed three votes for every two that Lake has received.

In previous elections, late-counted votes occasionally benefited Republican candidates. Yet this year, the Republican Party actively promoted early voting, providing many GOP candidates, including Donald Trump, with a favorable head start. Despite this strategy, Lake still found herself lagging behind Gallego.

The latest figures paint a stark picture: Trump amassed more than 1.66 million votes, outpacing Lake, who has collected around 1.46 million. Questions remain regarding whether Lake will accept the election results, following her previous legal battles over a 2022 gubernatorial loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs. In that instance, courts consistently dismissed her claims of electoral misconduct.

For Gallego, the victory holds mixed emotions. As a former state legislator and U.S. House member, he will transition to a Senate that, for at least the next two years, will be under Republican control. Although the GOP is anticipated to reach 53 seats, it still falls short of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster.

Despite that limitation, the new Republican majority will have the opportunity to confirm Supreme Court nominees without Democratic opposition. Furthermore, there will be no Democratic president to hinder Republican aspirations over the coming four years.

As of Tuesday, control of the U.S. House remains uncertain. Republicans have gained one seat, bringing their count to 214. The Democrats hold 204 seats, with a majority requiring 218 in the 435-seat chamber. Several races remain unresolved.