Judge Poised to Toss Arizona GOP’s Voter Roll Lawsuit

A federal judge has indicated he may dismiss a lawsuit alleging that Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is failing to properly maintain voter registration lists. The case, filed by the head of the Arizona Republican Party, Gina Swoboda, claims that over 500,000 individuals on the rolls have either moved away or passed away, which they argue violates the National Voter Registration Act.

In his draft order, Judge Dominic Lanza stated that even if the plaintiffs’ claims are valid, they have not demonstrated any direct harm caused by Fontes’ actions. He emphasized that mere beliefs about illegal government actions do not grant individuals the legal standing to sue.

Judge Lanza further criticized the plaintiffs’ assertion that the presence of inactive voters dilutes their votes, labeling this idea as “impermissibly speculative.” He noted that the argument lacks firm evidence showing that suspected ineligible voters significantly impact electoral outcomes.

The current ruling is not final. The judge will allow the attorneys for the plaintiffs to present their arguments in court next month to challenge any perceived missteps in his analysis.

Central to the lawsuit is the claim that 14 of Arizona’s 15 counties exhibit registration rates that are misleadingly high. Attorney Andrew Gould contends there are more active and inactive registered voters than there are eligible residents over the age of 18. He cites U.S. Census Bureau data, which indicates national averages for voter registration hover around 69.1%, while he argues Arizona should reflect a rate of about 69.9%.

Gould believes at least 500,000 registered voters should be removed from Arizona’s voter rolls, a figure he claims could rise to as many as 1.27 million. In total, the state boasts over 4.6 million active voters, alongside approximately 708,000 inactive voters.

The National Voter Registration Act mandates the state to verify the eligibility of inactive voters by sending notifications to their last known addresses. While individuals on this list can still vote by proving their residence, if they do not respond within two election cycles, they must be removed from the rolls.

Swoboda’s lawsuit also includes claims from Scot Mussi and Steven Gaynor, both with Republican ties. They argue Fontes should be compelled to enhance voter registration maintenance efforts. Gould insists their legal right to ensure accurate voter rolls stands essential to preserving electoral integrity.

Gould’s argument posits that inaccuracies in voter registration could result in ineligible individuals casting ballots, thus diluting legitimate votes. However, no specific examples of such instances were provided in the lawsuit.

Judge Lanza reiterated that even if federal law is being violated in maintaining voter registrations, this does not directly result in the dilution of votes. He pointed out the numerous hypothetical steps involved for such dilution to occur.

Moreover, the judge dismissed claims suggesting that inaccuracies in voter registration compel challengers to allocate more resources toward voter education and election monitoring. He called these assertions vague and unsubstantiated.