GOP Set to Strengthen State House Majority with Key Races Up Ahead

In a pivotal turn in northeast Phoenix, Republicans have gained significant traction in the state House of Representatives race, suggesting a potential increase in their majority come January. Preliminary ballot counts revealed a striking shift as Pamela Carter, a Republican newcomer, surpassed Democrat Kelli Butler, who had held a narrow 150-vote lead for the second House seat in Legislative District 4.

Matt Gress, another Republican, easily retained his seat in this competitive district. Butler, a former legislator, is now trailing Carter by over 1,100 votes, a steep decline from her previous position. With Republicans poised to secure at least one additional House seat, a victory for Carter would amplify the GOP’s strength to 33 out of 60 in the chamber.

Democrats aimed high for the 2024 elections, intent on breaking the Republican stronghold that has prevailed for nearly six decades. However, the outcome in District 4 may highlight the risks of their aggressive strategy, which could leave them with diminished representation.

Traditionally, Democrats had focused their efforts on a single candidate in Republican-dominated districts, a strategy known as single-shotting. This tactic aimed to consolidate votes around one candidate to dilute the opposition’s support. Laura Terech successfully employed this strategy in her previous win in District 4, where Republicans hold a 13-percentage-point registration advantage.

This cycle, Democrats fielded both Butler and Karen Gresham, deviating from their previous strategy. Consequently, both candidates find themselves unable to secure a seat.

The Democrats faced a similar fate in Legislative District 13, which stretches from Chandler to Sun Lakes. Previously, one of the two House seats had been held by Democrats for multiple elections using the single-shot strategy. This year’s approach left the party at risk of losing their existing seat held by Jennifer Pawlik, as candidates Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales are both out of the running.

In contrast, the single-shot strategy appears effective in Legislative District 2 of north Phoenix. There, Democratic candidate Stephanie Simacek has a slight lead over Republican incumbent Justin Wilmeth and challenger Ari Daniel Bradshaw, with only a few hundred votes separating them.

The GOP stands on the verge of another potential gain in west Mesa’s Legislative District 9. Lorena Austin looks set for reelection, while her seatmate, Seth Blattman, faces a tight contest, trailing behind GOP contenders Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza by less than 100 votes.

On the Senate front, Republicans maintained their leads in key races. In District 2, Sen. Shawnna Bolick extended her advantage over Democratic challenger Rep. Judy Schwiebert from 1,900 to over 3,000 votes. Similarly, in District 4, Republican Carine Werner doubled her lead against Democratic incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh.

GOP candidate Robert Scantlebury is narrowing the gap in District 9, reducing Democratic Sen. Eva Burch’s lead to about 1,300 votes. However, a bright spot for Democrats emerged in District 17, where newcomer John McLean expanded his lead over Republican Vince Leach from approximately 760 to over 1,300 votes.