Fox News Moves Arizona from “Toss Up” to “Leans Right” in Surprising Shift

By Daniel Stefanski |

As the November General Election approaches, Fox News has reclassified Arizona from a “Toss-Up” to a “Lean R” battleground state. This shift could be pivotal for Donald Trump, as securing Arizona’s eleven electoral votes has been crucial in previous elections.

The Republican Party of Arizona celebrated this change, stating on social media, “In the final week before Election Day, Arizona has shifted from battleground to a likely win for President Trump!” They urged followers to vote early and stay engaged as the election date nears.

Key issues have dominated the electoral landscape, particularly immigration, which is especially pertinent for Arizona due to its proximity to the Mexico border. A recent Wall Street Journal survey indicated that 25% of voters ranked immigration as their top concern, surpassing all other issues. Furthermore, 24% considered it a “deal-breaker,” with Trump enjoying a 10-point preference over Harris on this topic.

Polling trends have remained stable, consistently highlighting immigration’s prominence among voters. Both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have actively campaigned in Arizona, investing heavily in advertisements and voter mobilization efforts, and making multiple appearances in the state. Trump and his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, were present in Arizona last week and are scheduled to return. Meanwhile, Harris and Governor Tim Walz have also made several campaign stops throughout the region.

Recent polling by Atlas Intel shows Trump leading Harris by nearly four points when considering all candidates. Additionally, about 57% of respondents express disapproval of President Joe Biden’s performance, contributing to Trump’s rising popularity in the state. A substantial 54% of those surveyed rated Biden’s tenure as “bad/terrible,” contrasting sharply with just 28% who felt it was “excellent/good.”

As of midweek, early ballot returns indicate that Arizona Republicans are outpacing Democrats, fueling cautious optimism within the party as they look ahead to Election Night on November 5. Many within the GOP are hopeful that this trend will translate into favorable results as they await the outcome from across the nation.

Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.