Flood of Outside Spending Shapes Arizona Legislative Races as Democrats Aim for Majority

In a decisive move ahead of Arizona’s upcoming legislative elections, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) announced an investment of nearly $1 million aimed at pivotal races statewide. This commitment follows an infusion of $8.5 million already allocated by outside groups targeting key districts.

The DLCC notes that this investment is part of a broader $2 million advertising strategy shared with Pennsylvania, with the goal of achieving Democratic control of both legislative chambers for the first time in nearly six decades. This spending represents a shift toward directly influencing voter opinions, building upon previous expenditures of about $350,000 to support Democratic candidates.

“Control of Pennsylvania and Arizona’s legislatures will come down to just a handful of votes, and abortion could be the driving message that determines who wins in November,” said DLCC Communications Director Sam Paisley.

Abortion rights have emerged as a central theme for Democrats this election cycle, especially with a constitutional amendment regarding reproductive rights appearing on Arizona’s November ballot.

An analysis by Arizona Mirror of independent expenditure data indicates that outside funding has afforded Democrats a slight advantage in competitive districts. In reviewing 11 critical races, pro-Democrat independent expenditures (IEs) reached approximately $4.67 million, surpassing the $3.87 million in pro-Republican efforts.

The disproportionate outside spending compared to candidate fundraising highlights the dynamic nature of these races. For instance, in the contentious Legislative District 13 House race, outside expenditures exceeded $1.6 million, significantly overshadowing the combined $826,310 raised by the four candidates involved.

A similar trend is evidenced in the Senate race for District 2, where nearly $1.42 million has been spent by outside groups, dwarfing the $841,000 garnered by incumbent GOP Senator Shawnna Bolick and her Democratic challenger, Rep. Judy Schwiebert. This pattern reflects the substantial influence of independent expenditures on race outcomes.

The data reveals compelling trends regarding outside spending:

• Legislative District 13’s House race is the most expensive, with IEs exceeding $1.6 million.
• Senate races predominantly show Republican IE support, with pro-GOP spending leading in three out of five key contests.
• Conversely, House races are more favorable to Democrats in terms of IE support, with four out of six key races leaning their way.

Prominent groups contributing to these battleground races include Future Freedoms ($2.3 million), supporting Democrats, and Responsible Leadership for AZ ($1.5 million) alongside other Republican-supportive organizations.

Analysts highlight the surge of outside funding as a reflection of the competitive nature of these races, which could fundamentally determine the legislative balance. Earlier this year, progressive lobbyist Marilyn Rodriguez expressed optimism about Democrats’ winning prospects: “We have to work hard, but this is gettable,” she said, referring to the possibility of a Democratic majority.

Following the Democratic victories in 2022, where the party secured all top statewide offices, the focus has intensified on providing Governor Katie Hobbs with the legislative support needed to implement her policies.

Republicans, despite being outspent overall, experienced some victories, notably Vince Leach’s primary win over incumbent Justine Wadsack. Barrett Marson, a Republican campaign advisor, noted that this was a satisfactory primary outcome for the GOP.

As the general election campaign heats up, both parties are emphasizing stark contrasts in their narratives. Democrats label their opponents as extreme MAGA supporters, while Republicans depict their challengers as radical socialists unfit for Arizona. With the influx of outside spending and heightened messaging, voters can anticipate a vigorous campaign leading up to what could become one of the most consequential legislative elections in Arizona’s history.