Despite a Flood of Democratic Funds, Republicans Set to Expand Legislative Dominance

Republicans appear set to strengthen their control over the Arizona legislature, despite record spending efforts by Democrats. After the counting of ballots concluded Wednesday, GOP candidates seem poised to expand their slim majorities in both the state Senate and House of Representatives.

Democrats devoted over $10 million to key battleground races in an attempt to secure a legislative majority. With Donald Trump as the GOP’s figurehead and widespread anger among voters—especially women—regarding the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats viewed 2024 as a prime opportunity to regain influence in the Arizona Capitol.

Initial reports on election night provided a glimmer of hope for Democrats, but as counting progressed, the outlook shifted. The tallying of early ballots that were not cast on Election Day diminished their chances significantly, leaving Republicans in a position to fortify their holds.

For the past four years, Republicans maintained precarious one-vote majorities—31 seats in the House and 16 in the Senate. Early signs now suggest they may capture at least one additional seat in both chambers, depending on the remaining uncounted ballots.

In Senate races, GOP newcomer Carine Werner overtook incumbent Democrat Christine Marsh in Legislative District 4, which encompasses parts of northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Cave Creek. Initially trailing by 38 votes, Werner surged to a lead of over 1,100 votes by early evening on Wednesday.

In southern Arizona’s Legislative District 17, former lawmaker Vince Leach significantly reduced Democratic newcomer John McLean’s lead from 4,000 to just 916 votes. This seat, currently held by Republican Sen. Justine Wadsack—who lost her primary to Leach—was a top target for Democratic candidates.

Across town in Legislative District 9, Democratic incumbent Eva Burch finds herself with a 1,700-vote lead over Republican Robert Scantlebury, in a rematch from the previous election cycle. Meanwhile, in north Phoenix’s Legislative District 2, Republicans hoped to unseat Sen. Shawnna Bolick, but she has expanded her lead to nearly 1,900 votes over challenger Judy Schwiebert, leaving little chance of a Democratic victory.

If Bolick and Werner maintain their leads while Leach and Scantlebury make comebacks, Republicans would achieve a total of 19 Senate seats, just one shy of a supermajority.

In House races, Republicans are likely to reclaim a seat from Democrats in Legislative District 13, stretching from Chandler to Sun Lakes. Democrat Brandy Reese, who initially led, has fallen behind GOP candidates Jeff Weninger and Julie Willoughby, trailing by approximately 2,500 votes.

Additionally, Republicans look set to gain another seat in Legislative District 16, where incumbent Democrat Keith Seaman is currently trailing GOP candidate Chris Lopez by more than 2,200 votes.

Nonetheless, Democrats have found a glimmer of success in House District 17, where Kevin Volk leads the three-way contest, significantly ahead of GOP incumbents Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr.

Meanwhile, Democrats Kelli Butler and incumbent Seth Blattmann face stiff challenges as Republicans Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza close the gap in their respective districts.