Dems Unleash Financial Power in High-Stakes Legislative Battle

A significant financial battle is unfolding in Arizona as outside groups invest over $17 million in an effort to sway control of the state legislature. This surge in funding comes during the final two weeks leading up to the election, a period that has seen a doubling of independent expenditures on legislative races.

The stakes are high, with the outcome determining which party will dominate the Arizona Capitol when lawmakers reconvene for the annual legislative session in January. Traditionally, Republicans have maintained a stronghold in the legislature since 1966, but Democrats see the 2024 elections as a pivotal opportunity to reclaim power.

According to an analysis by Arizona Mirror, the influx of outside funding has increasingly favored Democratic candidates in 13 closely contested races. In these battlegrounds, pro-Democratic independent expenditures (IEs) have surpassed $10 million, outpacing investment for Republican candidates, which stands at $7.37 million.

The House of Representatives, with 60 members across 30 districts, has attracted a total of $9.54 million, compared to $7.85 million for the state Senate’s 30 members. Specifically, Democratic groups have outspent Republicans significantly in the House, with $5.72 million compared to $3.82 million across 22 candidates in seven districts. Similarly, Senate races show Democrats spending $4.3 million against Republican expenditures of $3.55 million across 11 candidates in six contests.

Notably, only three races saw higher contributions for GOP candidates. These include the District 13 Senate contest, the District 16 House race, and the District 17 House race. Interestingly, the majority of outside spending has been concentrated in a handful of key contests, with the top five races accounting for nearly $10 million.

Two specific races stand out for their financial clout. The District 13 House race in Chandler leads with $2.43 million, where the majority supports Democratic newcomers Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales, while incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Willoughby also faces significant spending against her. In District 2, a Senate race in north Phoenix has drawn $2.35 million, with Democrat Judy Schwiebert receiving the primary backing against incumbent Republican Shawnna Bolick.

Republican efforts have largely been defensive in Senate contests, but they are taking an aggressive stance in the District 16 House race, hoping to unseat Democrat Keith Seaman with a spending advantage of $800,000 to roughly $550,000.

The landscape of outside spending contrasts starkly with candidates’ individual fundraising efforts, with external support significantly overshadowing direct contributions in many instances. Key organizations backing various candidates include Future Freedoms, Chispa AZ PAC, and the House Victory Fund, each contributing millions to their preferred parties.

This year’s growth in outside spending represents a notable increase from 2022, when total contributions were just over $11 million for contested legislative races. Such financial activity is largely concentrated in suburban districts critical for Democratic success, a trend that gained traction in the previous election cycle.

Should Democrats succeed in gaining legislative control, it would mark a significant shift, especially for Governor Katie Hobbs. She has faced challenges working with a predominantly Republican legislature that has largely dismissed her proposed policies during her tenure.

In addition to legislative races, this year’s ballot includes elections for three out of five slots on the Arizona Corporation Commission. Roughly $2 million has been allocated to support Democratic candidates Ylenia Aguilar, Jonathon Hill, and Joshua Polachek, whereas funding for Republican challengers has been minimal.

The heightened financial stakes in these races reflect both parties’ recognition of the importance of legislative control, making Arizona a focal point in the national political landscape.