Democratic Setbacks Propel Fontes to Consider Primary Challenge Against Hobbs in 2026

After significant losses in the Arizona Legislature, some Democrats are reconsidering their leadership options for the 2026 elections. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has indicated he will be “seriously considering every option” regarding his political future, hinting at a possible challenge to incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs.

Fontes has accumulated approximately $195,000 in campaign funds, positioning himself as a formidable candidate if he chooses to run. Insiders suggest that certain Democrats believe Hobbs lacks the political strength to secure a second term, prompting discussions about Fontes stepping up as a viable alternative.

In the recent election, Hobbs sought to gain ground by raising $500,000 to flip the Republican-controlled state House or Senate. However, the outcome was disappointing; Republicans gained two House seats and one Senate seat, deepening their control.

Despite the losses, Hobbs dismissed suggestions that Arizona voters preferred Republican solutions over her own, highlighting her previous victory over Kari Lake. She stressed that she would not change her approach, asserting, “We did what we needed to do.”

Questions linger about Hobbs’ prospects against potential Republican challengers. Karin Taylor Robson, who narrowly lost the gubernatorial primary to Lake, stands out as a significant contender. Robson’s campaign faced scrutiny for being tied to Lake’s more extreme rhetoric regarding the 2020 election.

However, the political landscape shifts in Arizona. Recently, registered Republican voters have increased to 35.8%, while Democrats have dwindled to 29%. This change may necessitate a stronger Democratic candidate, given Hobbs’ narrow victory margin of just over 17,000 votes against Lake.

Although Hobbs had a thriving primary, her funding advantage over her competitor cannot be ignored. She raised $14.7 million compared to Marco Lopez’s $1.8 million. Nonetheless, her fundraising prowess remains evident, boasting around $3 million after her recent efforts to gain legislative control.

Fontes, too, has demonstrated electoral strength, having won his position by defeating Mark Finchem decisively. He has established himself as a capable candidate with a solid track record against Republican opponents.

Another significant figure in statewide office is Attorney General Kris Mayes, who is also contemplating a second term. Despite her disputes with Hobbs, Mayes appears determined to continue her political journey.

Hobbs faces challenges not only from her Republican counterparts but also internally within her party. Recently, she announced her willingness to collaborate with the incoming Trump administration on border security, a move that may alienate some progressive supporters.

When pressed about her stance on protecting “dreamers” from potential deportations, Hobbs avoided a definitive answer, indicating uncertainty about future actions. This reticence could further complicate her standing within Democratic ranks as they navigate the aftermath of recent electoral setbacks.

The broader context reveals a challenging year for Democrats nationwide, not just in Arizona. The party has struggled to regain ground lost to Republicans, who have solidified their position with electoral victories, including Trump’s successful campaign in the state.

Amid these political dynamics, only a few bright spots emerged for Democrats, such as Ruben Gallego’s substantial win over Lake, reflecting a complex and evolving political landscape in Arizona.