AZ Free News Exclusive: Trump Edges Ahead in Arizona Amid Economic and Border Concerns

By Staff Reporter |

A recent poll conducted by Data Orbital for AZ Free News indicates a tight race between President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris for the November 2024 General Election. Between September 7 and September 9, Trump led Harris by a slim margin of 0.2%, garnering 46.2% of the vote compared to Harris’s 46%. The margin of error stands at 4.26%.

Notably, approximately 7.7% of Arizona voters remain undecided, highlighting the competitive nature of this swing-state election.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, remarked, “Independent voters are crucial in this race. The results fluctuate as we gauge who’s in the lead.” He added that the undecided percentage may be misleading, suggesting that the true figure could be as low as one or two percent, given the high profile of the election.

Khalaf elaborated on the undecided voters, noting that some might claim they will vote but ultimately do not. He speculated that those who end up voting may not commit to the presidential election, potentially opting for write-in candidates instead.

When participants were asked to identify the most pressing issues in Arizona, 30.4% cited the economy and inflation, while 28.7% pointed to border and immigration concerns. A smaller portion, 18.3%, prioritized abortion and women’s rights.

In contrast, national Gallup polling from August revealed immigration as the paramount issue for 19% of respondents. The economy followed closely behind at 18%, with poor government leadership and inflation also significant concerns.

The Data Orbital poll results were taken before the presidential debate held on September 10 and, therefore, may not account for shifts in voter sentiment that followed. Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports, with data extending to September 12, indicates Trump leading by six points, with another six percent undecided.

Pollster Nate Silver’s models continue to show Trump favored to secure the election. His most recent analysis suggests a 61% probability of Trump winning, based on simulations analyzing the electoral college dynamics.

The projections also highlight Trump with a 63% chance of winning Pennsylvania and a 52% likelihood in Michigan, reaffirming his competitive edge as the election day approaches.

Khalaf expressed skepticism about significant changes in voter sentiment prior to the election, asserting that political polling has limitations and is subject to margins of error. He emphasized the toss-up status of Arizona, suggesting a slight lean towards Trump without major shifts expected.

Commenting on an assassination attempt against Trump, Khalaf noted the public’s desensitization to such events, implying that it might not drastically influence voter behavior. He concluded that similar dynamics apply across all swing states, including Arizona.