Arizona’s November Showdown: Who Will Emerge Victorious in this Perennial Toss-Up?

Arizona, a pivotal swing state, may determine whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris ascends to the White House in November 2024.

Historically, Arizona leaned Republican, voting red from 1952 through 2016 with the exception of 1996, when Democrat Bill Clinton won. In 2020, however, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump.

In the mid-20th century, Arizona’s political landscape shifted. The arrival of more Republicans from the Midwest, coupled with conservative Democrats migrating to the Republican Party, transformed Arizona into a competitive two-party state. Key influences included newspaper publisher Eugene Pulliam, who used his editorial power to bolster Republican candidates.

The Republican Party gained momentum as a business-friendly and reform-minded entity, although a conservative populist faction also existed. From 1966, Republicans predominantly controlled the state legislature, maintaining firm control over the House of Representatives and often the State Senate. Currently, Republicans hold six of the state’s nine congressional seats, despite growing Democratic influence.

Despite a higher Republican voter registration, Democrats have made significant inroads, particularly in recent statewide elections. They secured U.S. Senate seats in 2018 and 2020 and won key offices in 2022, including governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.

Arizona’s diverse electorate has contributed to these Democratic gains. Support has surged among women, minorities, and young people, alongside moderate Republicans dissatisfied with their party’s extremism. Migration from more liberal states like California and increased Latino voter participation have also bolstered Democratic success.

Both parties have targeted key issues to sway voters. Democrats focus on reproductive rights, immigration, and education. Republicans emphasize economic issues and conservative social values, particularly appealing to rural voters.

Crucial counties such as Maricopa, which comprises over 60% of the state’s votes, have seen changing demographics, moving from a Republican stronghold to a potential swing area. Suburban areas with higher wealth and education levels reflect these shifts.

As 2024 approaches, pivotal ballot measures could influence voter turnout. Democrats hope an abortion rights measure will galvanize support, while Republicans back a measure criminalizing visa-less border crossings, tapping into voters’ significant concerns about immigration and the economy.

Trump may perform well on immigration issues, whereas Harris has stronger support on abortion rights. Her candidacy has revitalized Democratic enthusiasm, particularly among women, independents, and Latinos, which may erode Trump’s slim lead.

Overall, Arizona remains unpredictable. As election campaigns develop, changing voter sentiment could swing the state in either direction, making it a contested battleground in the 2024 election.