Arizona Poll Reveals Key Insights Behind Voter Decisions in the 2024 Election

By Matthew Holloway |

Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) published the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, marking the most comprehensive exit-poll approximation generated in the state to date. Conducted in late November, the survey captured insights from 988 registered voters, probing their motivations behind their electoral choices.

The findings revealed that Trump’s campaign resonated significantly with Independent voters, with 27% citing the economy as their primary concern when casting their ballots. This strong economic focus was echoed by many polls leading up to the election.

NPI discovered that immigration and “threats to democracy” followed the economy as pivotal issues influencing voter decisions. Trump’s emphasis on immigration played a critical role in rallying Republican and Independent support, sharply contrasting with Democrats’ focus on perceived threats to democracy.

Research Chief David Byler articulated the divide between party priorities: “While Republicans spotlighted immigration and economic challenges, Democrats leaned more towards abortion and democracy-related concerns.” This disconnect in voter focus painted a vivid picture of the political landscape during the election.

The poll indicated that both Republicans and Independents ranked the economy as their primary issue at 31%, with immigration close behind. However, immigration held greater significance for Republicans (24%) than for Independents (17%).

The survey also flagged a potential setback for Vice President Kamala Harris, as 56% of respondents viewed her as an extension of the Biden administration rather than an independent leader. Given Biden’s long-standing low approval ratings among Arizona voters, this association may have influenced perceptions of her campaign negatively.

NPI Founder Mike Noble commented on this alignment, suggesting it could represent a strategic blunder within the Democratic Party. “Choosing a candidate so closely linked to an unpopular administration was a risky move,” he noted.

Shifting to the Senate race, the poll’s framework yielded more emotionally charged responses, particularly directed at Kari Lake. Among those unimpressed by Lake, the prevailing sentiments centered around her denial of the 2022 gubernatorial loss and her similarity to Trump without presenting fresh ideas. NPI focused on the reasons voters distanced themselves from Lake, highlighting a stark contrast in voter sentiments based on personal perceptions rather than specific policy positions.

Matthew Holloway is a reporter for AZ Free News. For more updates, follow him on X or reach out via email at Matthew@azfreenews.com.