Arizona’s Abortion Ballot Could Spike Turnout Amid Biden’s Vigorous Push for Reproductive Rights

Democrats in Arizona are pinning their hopes on abortion rights as the critical issue to galvanize voters in the upcoming elections. President Joe Biden, who only narrowly clinched victory in the state in 2020, currently trails former President Donald Trump in most polls.

Arizona for Abortion Access, a coalition that includes the ACLU and Planned Parenthood, gathered an impressive 800,000 signatures to place an abortion rights initiative on the November ballot. This initiative aims to protect access to abortion up until fetal viability.

In the wake of the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, similar initiatives have proven to boost Democratic turnout significantly across the United States. Arizona Democrats believe this measure could be their ace in both presidential and Senate races, especially after Biden’s subpar debate performance last week.

A June poll by KFF revealed that 60% of Democratic women, 52% of independent women, and 37% of Republican women in Arizona are more likely to vote with the abortion measure on the ballot. Notably, 74% of women under 30— a key demographic in Biden’s 2020 win— indicated the measure would drive them to the polls.

Historical data shows that abortion ballot measures can alter electoral outcomes. In Michigan, a similar initiative increased voter turnout by almost 5% in the 2022 midterms, contributing to significant Democratic victories.

Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State University, noted these ballot initiatives turn out voters who typically abstain in midterms. This suggests that the Arizona measure could have a substantial impact on the upcoming elections.

On the Republican side, Kari Lake, the likely GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat, initially supported enforcing an 1864 Arizona law banning abortions. However, she softened her stance after realizing the measure lacked public support.

Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has criticized Lake’s position, arguing that it endangers women’s health. Gallego has pledged to prioritize abortion rights and eliminate the Senate filibuster to codify Roe v. Wade.

Polling by CBS/YouGov in May indicated that 65% of Arizona voters support a constitutional right to abortion. Gallego and Lake are in a tight race, with some polls showing them neck and neck.

Abortion rights remain a contentious issue for Trump, and backlash against the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision is viewed as a key reason Democrats avoided major losses in the 2022 elections.

Democratic leaders, including Vice President Kamala Harris and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, have been actively campaigning in Arizona to rally support for the abortion measure. The Secretary of State’s office is expected to certify the measure shortly, having received more than double the required signatures.

Arizona is not alone; Florida, Colorado, Nevada, South Dakota, and Maryland will also vote on abortion rights measures in November. Similar efforts are underway in Nebraska, Montana, and Arkansas.

Mary Ziegler, a law professor at UC Davis, noted that while abortion measures have buoyed Democrats, they are not a guaranteed ticket to electoral success. In red states like Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana, voters have supported abortion rights while still electing Republican candidates.

In Michigan, the abortion initiative increased youth turnout and attracted voters who might have otherwise skipped the midterms. However, Biden’s recent debate performance could diminish any gains from the abortion measure.