Surge of Early Voters: Millions of Americans Opt for In-Person and Mail-In Ballots

WASHINGTON — As Election Day approaches, nearly 30 million Americans have already cast their ballots. Data from the University of Florida’s election lab indicates that 13 million voters opted for early in-person voting while 17 million submitted their votes by mail. This number is expected to rise significantly in the days leading up to November 5.

The elections hold critical stakes, determining whether Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump will assume the presidency for the next four years. Voters will also impact which party controls the U.S. House and Senate for the upcoming legislative term.

According to Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the presidential race remains highly competitive. Notably, battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are considered toss-ups.

Early voting rates in several of these states have eclipsed those of others, with states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia reporting at least 1.2 million early ballots each. California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas have surpassed 2 million early votes.

An analysis reveals that among states disclosing party affiliation, Democrats have cast nearly 42% of early ballots, while Republicans account for 35%, and other voters make up about 23%. In Arizona specifically, Republican early voting has surpassed Democratic ballots by 38,000, although Democratic turnout is approximately 19.5%, slightly exceeding Republican turnout. Women, who tend to favor Harris, represent nearly 52% of early ballots cast.

U.S. House Control in Question

Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggests Republicans are slightly favored to secure 212 House seats, with Democrats maintaining at least 209. Fourteen races are classified as toss-ups, keeping control of the chamber uncertain. Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman noted that a split in these toss-ups would yield a narrow Republican majority.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene emphasized their commitment to voter protection initiatives, ensuring every American has the chance to vote. These efforts will extend beyond Election Day as absentee ballots are counted.

“This priority is crucial since many races are close. We aim to ensure all ballots are correctly counted across the country,” DelBene stated during a virtual meeting with the Regional Reporters Association.

It remains possible that control of the House will not be established on election night, a situation reminiscent of the prolonged counting period following the 2022 midterm elections.

Senate Outlook Favors Republicans

The Senate currently leans toward Republicans, with potential seat gains in West Virginia and Montana. Nevertheless, a recent update moved Nebraska from likely Republican to leaning Republican, as GOP support has been mobilized to assist incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer against independent challenger Dan Osborn.

States have different regulations regarding early in-person voting and mail-in ballot eligibility, which affects when and where voters can cast their early ballots. All states are mandated to provide in-person voting on November 5, and additional voting information is widely available.