Arizona’s Senate Showdown: Ruben Gallego Stays Ahead of Kari Lake in Key Race

Control of the U.S. Senate hinges on the outcome of the Arizona race, where Congressman Ruben Gallego must defeat Republican candidate Kari Lake, according to Senate strategist Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. Peters emphasized the importance of this matchup, asserting, “We don’t hold the majority if we lose Arizona.”

Kari Lake, a former Phoenix TV news anchor who narrowly lost the gubernatorial race in 2022, is a strong ally of former President Donald Trump. She is competing against Gallego, who has served five terms in the U.S. House, for the seat vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema, who made history as Arizona’s first female senator by winning as a Democrat in 2018, switched to independent in 2022.

The current Senate composition is precarious for Democrats, holding a slim 51-49 majority with Sinema and two other independents aiding the coalition. On the Republican side, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is focusing heavily on Arizona, recognizing it as a prime opportunity for gains. Spokesperson Tate Mitchell stated, “Arizona remains one of the top pick-up opportunities for Republicans this cycle.”

Polling suggests a competitive race. A Fox News poll from August 28 showed Gallego with a 15-point lead over Lake, while a CNN poll from September 4 indicated a tighter race, with Gallego’s advantage shrinking to just 3 percentage points, a figure within the margin of error. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democrat,” highlighting its importance in maintaining Democratic control.

Campaign spending in Arizona has escalated dramatically. According to OpenSecrets, over $62 million had already been spent by the candidates and outside groups through June, with Gallego outspending Lake at a rate of 3-1. The previous Senate election in Arizona saw a staggering $258 million in expenditures, ranking it as one of the most expensive in the nation.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee plans to ramp up efforts by investing in ground resources, including hiring canvassers to enhance voter outreach. Likewise, Republicans are preparing to intensify their initiatives in Arizona during the critical last weeks leading up to the election.