Violent Crime Rates Plunge to Pre-Pandemic Lows

The number of homicides in the United States declined by 16% in 2024, continuing a recent downward trend, as indicated by the latest crime trends report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), a nonpartisan think tank.

Following a surge in homicides during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, crime has become a focal point of political discourse. In particular, President Donald Trump’s 2024 reelection campaign emphasized perceived crime increases, despite contradicting FBI data that shows a decline. Observers expect a tough-on-crime policy approach from a potential second Trump administration.

This year, state legislatures across the nation are expected to prioritize criminal justice measures including prison oversight, issues surrounding illegal immigration, retail theft, and updated policing standards. Polls indicate that a majority of Americans view crime as a significant problem, albeit a perception that has waned compared to previous years.

The CCJ compiles data from various law enforcement agencies for its biannual reports, providing more up-to-date information than the FBI’s annual report. Both organizations indicate a similar turnaround in violent crime trends.

In 2023, the FBI reported an 11.6% drop in criminal homicides compared to the previous year, marking the largest single-year decline in two decades. The CCJ’s latest report indicates this positive trend persists, with a 16% decrease in homicides for 2024, equating to 631 fewer deaths in the 29 participating cities.

If these figures are validated with further data submissions to the FBI later this year, 2024 could witness one of the most significant year-over-year drops in homicides since modern record-keeping began in 1960.

Despite a reduction in homicide rates, crime remains a potent political issue. According to Gallup, 56% of Americans believe national crime levels have either risen or view it as a serious problem. Interestingly, public concern has diminished slightly over the last year.

Political affiliation heavily influences perceptions of crime. The survey indicates that 60% of Democrats believe crime has decreased, while 90% of Republicans contend it has escalated. Experts suggest that media narratives and political rhetoric might amplify fears about crime, making certain offenses seem more pervasive than they are.

“Even with improved crime rates, we must remain focused on crime and the criminal justice system,” noted Ernesto Lopez, co-author of the report. The CCJ analyzed crime data from 40 U.S. cities, although not all cities provided comprehensive data for all offenses.

Among the 40 cities studied, 22 experienced a decline in homicides last year, with Chandler, Arizona, and Little Rock, Arkansas, showing the most significant reductions at 50% and 43%, respectively. Conversely, Colorado Springs, Colorado, recorded a 56% increase in homicides.

When comparing homicide rates between 2019 and 2024, the study revealed a cumulative 6% decline, notably influenced by cities historically characterized by high homicide rates like Baltimore and St. Louis. However, in some major cities, homicide counts remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic figures. For instance, New York City reported 382 homicides in 2024, an increase from 319 in 2019, while Washington, D.C., saw similar trends.

The CCJ report also assessed trends in other violent and property crimes, including gun assaults and drug offenses. Most offenses showed lower rates in 2024 compared to 2023, with the exception of shoplifting, which surged by 14%. Researchers hypothesize this rise might stem from better reporting rather than an actual increase in thefts.

In the legislative arena, there has been a strong emphasis on addressing retail theft, with Maryland lawmakers exploring measures to combat large-scale organized retail crime.

From 2023 to 2024, reported robbery incidents fell by 10%, carjackings by 32%, and motor vehicle thefts by 24%. While violent crimes like sexual assault and domestic violence have receded below pre-pandemic levels, aggravated assaults and gun assaults remain higher than in 2019, according to the report.

Property crime trends fluctuated over the past five years, showing decreases in residential burglaries and larcenies, but increases in nonresidential burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, which spiked by 53%. Drug offenses, however, saw a notable decline of 28%.