Trump’s Deportation Plans: Arizona Faces Soaring Costs and Labor Crises

Recent deportation orders by President Donald Trump pose a significant threat to Arizona’s agriculture and construction industries, potentially leading to increased prices for homebuyers and grocery shoppers across the state.

According to Pew Research Center data, approximately one in five agricultural workers and one in eight construction workers in Arizona lack permanent legal status. George Hammond, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona, emphasized that the removal of a substantial portion of the labor force could lead to labor shortages, causing supply chain disruptions and a scarcity of goods and services.

In 2022, Arizona’s undocumented population was estimated at around 250,000 within a total state population of approximately 7.3 million. Mark Hugo Lopez from Pew noted that losing a fraction of the workforce would have significant economic implications, particularly impacting housing and food costs.

The sectors expected to feel the brunt of these deportations are construction, hospitality, and agriculture. In 2023, construction contributed nearly $33 billion to Arizona’s $534 billion economy, while agriculture accounted for $2.6 billion, demonstrating their critical economic roles. In 2022, agricultural workers numbered 21,617 in Arizona, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

As of December 2022, the construction industry employed about 214,000 individuals, while the leisure and hospitality sector accounted for 355,000 jobs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Michael Vazquez, executive director of the Arizona State Building and Construction Trades Council, believes deportations may not significantly impact unionized construction workers due to strict federal screening through the E-Verify system.

Despite this, the state’s unemployment rate sits at just 3.8%, raising concerns among employers about potential worker shortages. Paul “Paco” Ollerton, a third-generation cotton farmer in Pinal County, highlighted the pressing need for labor, stating, “Everywhere you go, there is a shortage of labor.” This situation is exacerbated during housing booms, as workers often leave agricultural jobs for higher-paying construction positions.

Some business groups are advocating for an expansion of guest worker programs and temporary visas for unskilled labor as a mitigation strategy. However, gaining traction in Congress has proven difficult. In 2023, the State Department issued just over 310,000 H-2A visas for temporary agricultural workers, with approximately 26,000 allocated outside of Mexico.

There’s also the H-2B program for unskilled workers in non-agricultural sectors, granting nearly 132,000 visas in 2023. Yet, these temporary arrangements often fall short of meeting employers’ needs. Ollerton remarked, “It just doesn’t work,” noting the challenge of retaining trained workers when they are not offered long-term positions.

The potential impact of mass deportations on Arizona’s housing market remains contentious. Alex Nowrasteh of the Cato Institute speculated that home values may decline as people leave the state, potentially harming homeowners. Conversely, Geraldine Miranda from the Arizona Center for Economic Progress foresees rising housing prices driven by a constricted labor supply in construction, outpacing any reduction in demand.

Despite the current uncertainties, Arizona continues to attract new residents, ranking among the top states for net migration in 2023. Economists predict that industries reliant on immigrant labor will face significant labor shortages, likely driving wage increases. While this could benefit remaining workers, it would also result in higher operational costs for employers—expenses that would ultimately be passed down to consumers.

Pew Research indicates that around 11 million individuals lived in the U.S. unlawfully as of 2022, a decrease from a peak of 12.7 million in 2007. In Arizona, the undocumented population has halved since that time. The American Immigration Council estimates a rise of 2.3 million in the past two years, pushing the total to around 13.3 million, an increase that complicates discussions surrounding immigration policy.

Some estimates suggest Trump’s mass deportation strategy could cost a staggering $968 billion, necessitating a dramatic increase in detention facilities, additional personnel, and new adjudication resources. The feasibility of deporting over one million individuals annually for over a decade remains highly questionable, especially considering voluntary departures.

Lopez articulated the broader societal implications of these deportations, stating, “These deportations have a significant impact on the way that people are living their lives.” This reality affects not only those undocumented but also others who fear potential unintended consequences.