Trump Surges in Pima County, Securing More Voter Support in 2024

As Republican Donald Trump gears up for a return to the White House on January 20, 2024, analysis of voter results in Pima County reveals an upward trend in his performance compared to the 2020 election.

Though he still lost the primarily Democratic county, Trump secured just under 42 percent of the vote this year, compared to just under 40 percent in 2020 against Democrat Joe Biden. In actual numbers, Trump garnered 214,669 votes in Pima County, while Vice President Kamala Harris received 292,450 votes. This contrasts with 2020, where Trump received 207,758 votes to Biden’s 304,981 votes. Trump’s 2016 performance was even lower, as he earned 167,428 votes while Hillary Clinton achieved 224,661 votes.

In 2022, Trump notably won Arizona by 5.5 percent, translating to a margin of 187,382 votes, a significant rebound from his 2020 loss to Biden by just 10,457 votes, or nearly one percent.

Tucson Sentinel contributor Luke Knipe has mapped the voter turnout changes in Pima County, though it’s important to note that due to redistricting after the 2020 election, some precincts have been altered. The Sentinel’s interactive map allows users to explore these voting patterns between 2020 and 2024.

While some precincts showed Trump losing ground, the former and future president improved his margins in 165 of the 266 precincts overall. His most significant gains occurred on Tucson’s South Side, where he narrowed the gap even in precincts lost to Harris. In Precinct 114, located near Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Trump’s votes increased notably. In the previous election cycle, Biden won the precinct by a narrow margin, but in 2024, Trump flipped it, achieving 366 votes compared to Harris’ 218, marking an improvement of nearly 14 percent.

Notably, even as Pima County voters elected Democrats to all countywide offices and supported them in four out of five Board of Supervisors seats, Trump’s gains surprised no one. Political consultant Adam Kinsey from Uplift Campaigns noted that Trump managed slight but meaningful improvements across various demographics, largely driven by concerns over economic insecurity.

“The small gains across multiple groups can accumulate,” Kinsey commented. He highlighted Trump’s better performance among Latino males and college-educated white women as significant trends, reflecting a pattern observed across the country and now visible in Arizona and Pima County.