Trump Leads by a Whisker in Arizona as Harris Gains Ground

(The Center Square) – A newly released poll indicates a tight race in Arizona between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This survey, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, follows Biden’s replacement on the ballot and reveals a narrow margin of just 3% between the two candidates.

“Despite Trump’s slim advantage, Harris’s entry has noticeably altered voter dynamics across critical demographic groups,” the report states. During his campaign against Biden, Trump benefitted from the presence of third-party candidates, which divided the Democratic vote. Young, non-White Democrats often chose other options, thereby elevating Trump’s position.

However, recent data shows that many undecided voters are gravitating towards Harris. According to August AZPOP findings, Trump leads with 47% while Harris trails slightly at 44%, mirroring the 3-point lead Trump held against Biden in May. Notably, the proportion of undecided voters has decreased from 15% to 9% in that same timeframe, suggesting that Harris’s candidacy encourages clearer choices among voters.

The report reveals Harris is not only winning over disenchanted Democrats but also appealing to independents, Hispanics, and young voters—groups that previously leaned toward Trump. David Byler, DPI chief of research, affirms that the race essentially remains a contest between the two major parties, despite the candidate switch.

“One party switched their candidate, but this is still a Republican vs Democrat race,” Byler notes, emphasizing that Trump is leveraging his strong stances on immigration and criticism of the Biden economy. Conversely, Harris is vocal about abortion and climate change, targeting vulnerabilities in the Republican platform.

Mike Noble, NPI founder, believes Harris holds advantages in rallying Democratic support compared to Biden, especially with 80% of voters considering Biden’s withdrawal appropriate. He adds, “Trump’s claim of Democrats forcing Biden out lacks traction. The decision for Biden to step aside appears to be a non-issue for most voters.”

With polls indicating a fierce contest in Arizona, the outcome remains uncertain. As the race intensifies, the report suggests Arizona will be pivotal, with undecided voters likely swinging the results. “Both Trump and Harris have solidified their bases, but the key to victory lies in addressing the issues that matter most to Arizonans,” the report concludes.