Trump and Harris: Competing for Union Voters Amid Contrasting Labor Records

The upcoming presidential election presents a fierce competition between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump. Critical to their campaigns is winning over key voter demographics, including union members and their families.

Traditionally, union leaders have leaned toward Democratic candidates, a trend that continues in this election cycle. Nevertheless, support from rank-and-file union members has shown signs of erosion over the past four decades. A notable decline occurred in 2016, where exit polls revealed that voters from union households favored Hillary Clinton over Trump by just 8 percentage points—down from an 18-point advantage for Barack Obama in 2012.

This decrease marks a significant shift in union voter behavior, reminiscent of the 1980s when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale. Union voters hold considerable sway in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, where union membership exceeds the national average of 10%.

A late 2023 poll from New York Times/Siena College indicates a deadlock between Biden and Trump, each garnering 47% support from union voters. This is a stark contrast to Biden’s 55% support within this group in 2020.

Union voters emphasize candidates’ support for labor as a pressing issue. Labor historians often rank the Biden administration as second only to Franklin D. Roosevelt in terms of labor-friendly policies. Conversely, experts like historian Nelson Lichtenstein view Trump’s tenure as detrimental to organized labor, further shaping union perceptions of these candidates.

Several policy areas stand out as crucial for influencing union votes. First, federal workers. Trump enacted a series of executive orders in 2018 that undermined labor rights for roughly 950,000 federal employees. In contrast, Biden rescinded these orders and created a task force dedicated to enhancing union organization among federal workers—a move that has resulted in significant increases in union membership during his administration.

Then there are union elections. Historical protocols governing how these elections are conducted were established in the 1930s. Under Trump’s administration, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) leaned conservative, rolling back regulations that expedited union elections. Since Biden’s appointees took charge, the NLRB has reversed these changes, making it easier for workers seeking union representation.

Workplace safety regulations through the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) also illustrate contrasting approaches from the two candidates. Inspections diminished during Trump’s tenure, partly due to slow hiring processes. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has ramped up inspections and enhanced safety measures, particularly in response to COVID-19, showcasing a stark difference in prioritizing worker health.

In legislative realms, both candidates have extensive records. Harris, with a 98% approval rating from the AFL-CIO during her Senate years, and Tim Walz, Minnesota’s governor, who boasts a 93% rating, have demonstrated robust support for labor initiatives. Walz’s actions as governor, including instituting paid sick leave, underscore a commitment to labor rights.

In contrast, Trump’s running mate JD Vance has received a 0% labor rating, indicating a fundamentally different stance on labor issues. Vance’s opposition to pro-labor nominations has further alienated union voters.

A noteworthy demonstration of Biden’s commitment to labor came in September 2023 when he joined striking United Auto Workers on the picket line—marking him as the first sitting president to do so. Trump later spoke at a nearby non-union auto parts facility, which many viewed as a misstep with the labor constituency. Trump’s controversial comments praising Elon Musk’s firing of union-supporting employees did little to advance his appeal among union members.

As the election approaches, the voting behaviors of union households remain an uncertain but pivotal factor. Both campaigns recognize the significance of this demographic, especially given its impact in past elections.