Transforming Spaces: The Future of Real Estate Awaits

In the midst of a fluctuating housing market, many buyers are opting to postpone purchases until after the upcoming election. Trends indicate that this hesitation has been a recurring theme every four years throughout the past 39 years. Insights from the Cromford Report reveal key shifts in the housing landscape.

As of October 8, expectations surrounding mortgage rates have not materialized as anticipated. Three weeks following a Federal Reserve rate cut, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate surged to approximately 6.62%, marking the highest levels seen in two months.

Additionally, the active housing supply has increased by 3.7% over the past week, giving buyers more options in a still buyer-favored market.

On October 6, the analysis of September transactions in Maricopa County highlighted several noteworthy statistics:

• Closed transactions totaled 5,584, reflecting a 5.3% decrease from the 5,896 recorded in September 2023 and a 6.4% decline from August.
• New home closings decreased by 11.3%, with 1,441 units sold compared to 1,624 during the same month last year.
• Resale transactions also fell, with 4,143 closed sales representing a 3.0% drop year-over-year.

The median sales price for homes in September stood at $471,995, indicating a 4.9% increase from September 2023 and a modest rise of 0.4% from August. The median resale price reached $450,000, a 2.3% increase from the previous year but unchanged from the prior month. Meanwhile, the median price for new homes climbed to $518,792, an 8.3% rise from September 2023.

Despite having 21 working days in September 2024 compared to 20 in the same month last year, the 5.3% drop in closings suggests a more significant decline when adjusting for the increased number of days. A hypothetical model would have predicted a 5.0% increase in sales if the same daily closing rate had been maintained.

The new home market’s share saw a fractionally positive trend, reaching 25.8% in September, but down from 27.5% a year ago. Overall, prices rebounded slightly from August levels, yet remain 3.7% below the peak of $490,000 achieved in May 2022.

Although the trends illustrate low sales volumes, prices in certain regions like Cave Creek and Carefree have remained resilient. The forecast anticipates a gradual improvement in sales volume post-election, provided the market experiences no major disruptions and sees an influx of seasonal buyers returning.