Tourism Trends: Near Stability Since 2019, Falling Short of Projections

Sedona’s tourism numbers are being reevaluated, revealing a significant drop from long-held estimates. Historically, it was commonly stated that the city welcomed between 3 million and 3.5 million visitors each year. However, recent findings from a city-backed tourism report suggest a more nuanced reality.

Former Mayor Sandy Moriarty noted in November 2022 that figures as high as 4 million had circulated since she moved to the area 50 years ago. But with the city’s investment in comprehensive data collection via consulting firms like Kimley-Horn and Tourism Economics, updated statistics have emerged.

The data presented to the Sedona City Council on August 14 sheds light on recent visitation trends. Kimley-Horn’s analysis indicates 3.16 million visits in 2019, followed by 3.28 million in 2021 and 3.22 million in 2022. Notably, figures from 2020 were excluded due to disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which drastically impacted travel.

Tourism Economics corroborated this trajectory with its own findings, reporting nearly 2.84 million visits in 2018, a drop to 2.74 million during the pandemic year, before rebounding to over 3.28 million in 2021 and 3.16 million in 2022.

While the report highlights total visits, it also emphasizes that these figures do not represent unique visitors. Kimley-Horn estimated approximately 1.36 million unique visitors in 2019, with the counts rising to 1.42 million in 2021 but dipping slightly to 1.39 million in 2022.

The previous estimates of around 3.5 million visitors now appear inflated. The adjusted averages suggest a 60% reduction in unique visitors compared to prior assumptions. When considered alongside total visits, the new numbers indicate an 8% to 14% decline from earlier estimations.

During late 2020 and much of 2021, the area experienced what has been termed “revenge tourism.” Seasonal spikes led to perception of overwhelming crowds, yet data reveals a more restrained increase: only a 9.5% rise from 2019 to 2021 per Tourism Economics, compared to a mere 3.8% increase according to Kimley-Horn.

In terms of lodging, estimates indicate a slight demand increase of 1.5% in hotel occupancy rates between 2019 and 2021. With roughly 2,800 hotel rooms in Sedona and an occupancy rate averaging 67%, approximately 1.37 million overnight visitors utilized these accommodations in that timeframe.

Sedona’s landscape of short-term rentals remains largely unmonitored. Around 1,100 of these rentals exist, but the city does not track their occupancy rates. In 2021, 54% of all visitors hailed from within Arizona, with Yavapai County contributing a significant 33%. This influx suggests a more localized visitation pattern.

A visitor study elaborates that approximately 38% of Sedona workers reside within the city’s boundaries. A 2018 Transit Implementation Plan indicated that, at that time, only about 25% of the workforce were local residents, while over 60% commuted from surrounding areas.

Ultimately, this recalibration of visitor statistics casts a new light on Sedona’s tourism landscape, signaling a shift in understanding that could influence future planning and policies.