Surge of Migrants from Beyond the Americas Sparks Baseless ‘Military Invasion’ Claims Against China

Republican leaders have raised alarms about an influx of “military-aged” men crossing the Southwest border, suggesting a potential threat from nations like China and Russia since President Joe Biden assumed office.

At a recent rally in Tucson, former President Donald Trump characterized the situation as a “military invasion.” He claimed, “We are being conquered and we are being occupied by a foreign element,” referencing China’s vast military manpower.

However, expert analysis challenges this narrative. David Bier, director of immigration policy at the Cato Institute, noted that while migration from China has surged, there is no evidence supporting assertions of military motivations behind these crossings. Factors such as China’s economic struggles post-COVID and Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine have driven some immigration, but the numbers have since stabilized.

Bier stated, “They’re coming for freedom. They’re coming for opportunity,” pointing out that the overwhelming majority of unauthorized migrants originate from Latin America.

In fiscal year 2023, encounters with migrants outside of the Americas reached nearly 200,000—more than triple the previous year. However, this still represents a small fraction compared to the 2.2 million encounters within the hemisphere, highlighting the significant scale of unauthorized migration.

Ariel Ruiz Soto, a senior analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, emphasized that attention has been disproportionately focused on less common nationalities, such as Chinese, Indian, and Ukrainian migrants. Despite this, the Republican narrative remains prevalent, with figures like former Trump adviser Peter Navarro warning of “Chinese spies” infiltrating the U.S. border.

Recent statements from House Speaker Mike Johnson echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that migrants from “adversarial nations” pose untold risks.

Trump often highlights the profile of these migrants, asserting that many are young men of military age. Yet, official data indicates that a significant portion of Chinese migrant encounters consists of single adults, comprising 87% of the total this year. Importantly, the data does not specify the sex of these individuals.

Experts assert that the presence of single, working-age males at the border aligns with known migration patterns. Ruiz Soto explained, “There’s really no significant threat of single military-age men coming to the United States.” The increase in encounters can be attributed to a general rise in migration numbers.

Migrants from China often begin their journeys in Ecuador, which previously had relaxed visa requirements. Conversely, Russians benefit from not needing a visa to enter Mexico, streamlining their path to the U.S.

The encounter rate of single Chinese migrants at the Southwest border dramatically increased from 8,926 in fiscal year 2021 to 38,226 in the current year; most of these individuals crossed through California. In Arizona, encounters surged from 39 in 2021 to 4,155 last year, with 428 reported thus far in 2023.

Circumstances in China, characterized by deteriorating conditions and increasing authoritarianism, have led many to seek opportunities abroad. Bier remarked on the complexities facing these migrants, while highlighting the unique motivations for Russian migrants who fled due to the repercussions of the Ukraine invasion. Russian encounters ballooned in 2022, peaked at over 50,000 in 2023, and have since decreased to 16,000 this year.

Rachel Wilson, an immigration attorney in Tucson, dismissed the military invasion narrative as “completely absurd,” stressing the rigorous screening processes for asylum seekers. Many Russian men, she noted, are fleeing mandatory military service or conflict, seeking safety for their families.

This discourse is met with frustration from activists like James Holeman, who leads Battalion Search and Rescue in Arizona. He has witnessed a multitude of migrants, primarily from Latin America, seeking refuge. He stated, “A majority of people are fleeing for their lives. Migration is an act of desperation.”