Southern California Ports Brace for Import Surge as Trump Tariffs Loom

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach reported significant increases in imports in November as retailers prepare for potential tariffs anticipated under President-elect Donald Trump. Import volumes surged, with Long Beach seeing a 22% rise to a record 432,823 twenty-foot equivalent units, while the Port of LA experienced a 19% increase, reaching 458,165 twenty-foot equivalent units.

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, noted that importers are strategically front-loading cargo to mitigate risks associated with impending tariffs. He emphasized that uncertainty around these tariffs will continue to affect global shipping trends into the next year, although their first implementation could be delayed until summer or the third quarter of 2025.

Reflecting on previous experiences, Seroka indicated that a eventual decline in import volumes could mirror patterns observed when tariffs were imposed in 2018. Trump has previously stated intentions to impose a 25% tax on products from Canada and Mexico if these countries do not address issues related to drug trafficking and illegal immigration. Furthermore, an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods has been proposed until the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, is curtailed.

Another concern affecting import levels is labor instability on the East and Gulf coasts, where dockworkers may strike once their temporary contract expires on January 15. The potential for such disruptions has prompted importers to reroute cargo to the West Coast to avoid delays.

Jonathan Gold from the National Retail Federation expressed that both a strike and new tariffs could harm the economy. He stressed that early shipments are a necessary precaution to minimize the impact of these potential challenges on consumers and the industry.

Additionally, the upcoming transition to a new administration may complicate negotiations between labor unions and port operators. Seroka highlighted that the timing of this transition could delay the resolution of labor disputes, as it could take weeks or months for new cabinet members to be appointed.

Despite these challenges, the San Pedro Bay ports are on track to match or exceed the record cargo volume seen in 2021, during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This influx is occurring without the congestion that characterized previous years, allowing for smoother operations. Long Beach Harbor Commission President Bonnie Lowenthal commended the workforce and terminal operators for their efforts to ensure shelves remain stocked as the holiday season approaches. As the new year approaches, she pledged a commitment to exceptional service and sustainable growth for the future.