Showdown in LD13: No Incumbents in High-Stakes Five-Way Race for Swing District

In the upcoming Arizona House of Representatives election, both Republicans and Democrats are keenly focused on the East Valley’s Legislative District 13. With no incumbent from the 2022 election vying for the seat, the contest is particularly competitive.

Democratic Representative Jennifer Pawlik is stepping down to take a role as the Arizona School Board Engagement Director with Stand for Children Arizona. This departure leaves Republican incumbent Julie Willoughby as the sole current officeholder seeking election.

Willoughby assumed office in 2023 following the expulsion of former Representative Liz Harris. She is now running against former Republican state Representative Jeff Weninger as well as Democrats Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales. A Green Party candidate, Cody Hannah, is also on the ballot, promoting a progressive agenda.

Critical to this election, District 13 is a swing area, contributing to the narrow one-seat Republican majority in the House. Political analysts note its importance in determining overall control of the chamber.

“I think Republicans could secure the seat left vacant by Pawlik, particularly because Weninger has enjoyed popularity in this district,” stated lobbyist Barry Aarons. “He has a strong legislative record.”

Weninger previously served in the House from 2015 to 2023 and was also a Chandler City Council member. He chaired the House Commerce Committee and aimed for the state Treasurer position in 2023, though he lost in the primaries.

Willoughby faced challenges in the 2022 election, finishing third behind Pawlik and Harris. However, she was appointed to replace Harris by Republican precinct committeemen and approved by the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors after Harris’s expulsion.

The district shows a slight Republican advantage, with a 1.5% vote spread favoring GOP candidates, as indicated by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. This election marks the first time in recent years that Democrats are fielding two candidates for the House seats in District 13.

Complications for Democrats have surfaced with reports indicating Gonzales has been involved in a lengthy custody battle over his son, which includes a conviction related to a false police report. This history could pose a liability as he seeks public office for the first time.

GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin remarked that Gonzales’s situation might detract from Democratic efforts to retain Pawlik’s seat. “Weninger is likely to win one of the two seats; it’s the second seat that poses a challenge,” he noted.

Political consultant Barrett Marson emphasized the impact of early voting on the election landscape. “Some constituents who voted early for Gonzales are now regretting that decision,” he said, suggesting it may hinder Democratic chances of holding or capturing seats.

Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans in fundraising efforts for Gonzales and Reese, compared to Willoughby and Weninger. Notably, Reese garnered $175,000 in the third quarter alone, amassing over $318,000 throughout the cycle. Gonzales raised $167,000 in the last quarter and $251,000 overall, while Willoughby and Weninger collectively raised $120,000 during the third quarter and $255,000 throughout the election cycle.