Pinal County Supervisor Urges Attorney General Probe into Primary Election Results

A Pinal County supervisor, who recently lost his bid for sheriff, has called on the Arizona Attorney General’s Office to investigate primary election results. Kevin Cavanaugh, a Republican candidate, claims to have identified a pattern indicating potential inaccuracies in the election.

Cavanaugh presented his analysis to Votebeat, asserting the data shows “strong evidence that cheating has occurred.” However, two independent analysts reviewed the findings and stated that it is not definitive proof of fraud or error. Officials in Pinal County maintain confidence in the election’s integrity.

The Attorney General’s Office confirmed receiving a complaint from Cavanaugh but has not decided whether to investigate. Cavanaugh intends to bring up his concerns when the supervisors convene on Monday to certify the election results.

The suspicious pattern Cavanaugh pointed out relates to similarities between early ballots and election day ballots in several local races. Typically, there is a noticeable difference between these voting groups. In recent Arizona elections, Republicans tended to vote in person more than Democrats on election day. Cavanaugh noted that, in local races, the results were almost identical between early and election day votes, suggesting to him that something went amiss.

Analysts Benny White and Sam Almy, who reviewed Cavanaugh’s data, disagreed with his interpretation. They noted that voter behavior is increasingly unpredictable, influenced by various factors.

“It’s a curious pattern and historically interesting,” said White, a Republican analyst. “But that’s about it — just a curiosity.”

County Attorney Kent Volkmer, also a Republican, acknowledged the pattern as odd but expressed confidence in the election’s outcome after verifying the process with election officials.

Recorder Dana Lewis, the Republican in charge of the county’s elections, echoed this confidence. She highlighted extensive pre- and post-election testing and a hand-count audit confirming the accuracy of the results. Observers from all major political parties also attested to the election’s transparency.

“We will not be distracted by those perpetuating a baseless narrative that election staff are influencing results,” Lewis asserted.

Improvements since the county’s midterm elections have bolstered Lewis’s confidence. In November 2022, glitches occurred, but subsequent changes in processes, personnel, and facilities have greatly improved accuracy.

Cavanaugh has historically criticized the county’s elections department and Recorder Lewis. Following the analysis of the latest results, he found minimal discrepancies between early and election day votes in races for county sheriff, attorney, assessor, and supervisor districts.

Volkmer, who lost to Cavanaugh’s ally Brad Miller, also noted the unusual alignment of early and election day votes in his race.

Cavanaugh aims to request a court-ordered expanded hand count before the supervisors certify the results. Arizona law mandates a limited hand-count audit, but expanding this is restricted by state law.

Volkmer believes an expanded hand count could boost voter confidence. Democratic Chair Lisa Sanor, who was present during the vote count, saw nothing suspicious but agrees additional transparency could resolve doubts.

“Transparency is crucial,” Sanor said. “It would settle the matter.”

Lewis criticized Cavanaugh’s claims, asserting that logic and accuracy tests confirmed machine functionality. Ballots are tabulated with internet-disconnected machines under 24-hour security cameras.

Data analysts White and Almy cautioned against concluding from a single data pattern. They suggested other data points, such as the cast-vote record, would provide more context, though it is currently inaccessible in Arizona counties. Almy noted that certain trends could be explained by local race dynamics and ballot placement.

“Post-2020 voting patterns have become less predictable due to misinformation and the pandemic,” White said. “One set of figures doesn’t tell the whole story.”