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Pima County Polls: Rex Scott Boosts Vote Margin Across District 1 Precincts

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Pima County election: Rex Scott improved vote margin in most District 1 precincts

Pima County Supervisor Rex Scott is set to assume the chair’s gavel during the board’s meeting on January 21, 2024, marking a notable victory in his political career. In the recent election, he faced Republican Steve Spain in a rematch for District 1, which encompasses Oro Valley, parts of Marana, the Casas Adobes area, and the Catalina Foothills.

Scott significantly bolstered his margin of victory from the previous election, transitioning from a narrow win of just 730 votes in 2020 to a decisive triumph of 8,091 votes in November 2024. His total votes rose slightly to 66,995, whereas Spain’s vote count plummeted to 58,904, a drop of nearly 7,000 votes since 2020.

An analysis by Tucson Sentinel contributor Luke Knipe revealed that Scott’s performance improved in all but seven of the 52 precincts shared across the 2020 and 2024 elections. However, Pima County’s redistricting efforts complicate direct comparisons, as some precincts were altered or combined.

The recent changes shifted District 1 from a slight Republican advantage to a narrow Democratic edge. Of the district’s registered voters, 35% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 32% are unaffiliated with either major party. An interactive map from the Sentinel allows users to explore precinct-level changes between the two election cycles.

Notably, Scott’s strongest performance emerged in Precinct 125, where he increased his vote share from 1,013 to 1,270, marking a significant uptick of over 7%. In contrast, Spain’s votes in that precinct decreased from 845 to 764.

On the other hand, in Precinct 55, located north of River Road and east of Oracle Road, Spain experienced a slight improvement, although he still fell short. Here, Scott’s votes decreased from 727 to 646, compared to Spain’s minor increase from 370 to 380.

Various factors contributed to Scott’s success in the 2024 campaign. He capitalized on a shift in voter registration, enjoyed the advantages of incumbency, and outspent Spain by a significant margin—approximately 3 to 1, with Scott investing over $133,000 to Spain’s roughly $40,600.

Reflecting on the campaign, Scott attributed his victory to his record of service and community engagement, contrasting it with Spain’s negative campaigning tactics. “I think we not only kept Democrats with us. I think we won the independents, and I think we also got some pretty significant crossover support from Republicans,” he stated.