NCSL Predicts 2025’s Hot Topics: A Sneak Peek into the Future

Following the recent elections, minimal partisan shifts occurred in state governments, prompting the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) to anticipate a continuation of established policy directions.

CEO Tim Storey emphasized that external funding will likely persist, particularly as state capitals become epicenters for policymaking, overshadowing Washington, D.C.

“If you want something to change, you have to make it happen in the states,” Storey stated during a conference call aimed at outlining key legislative issues for 2025. He noted the importance of states, especially the 24 that allow for initiatives, in shaping policies.

Storey identified only four state legislative chambers, including Michigan’s House, that flipped parties, indicating a significant decrease in partisan turnover. “Most of the time, the party in control has held that position for the past four to ten years,” he remarked. He suggested that substantial legislative shifts are unlikely due to the stability of leadership in these states.

Regardless of party governance, budget development remains paramount. However, Storey foresees a more cautious approach this cycle, contrasting with previous years’ spending patterns.

With federal funds from the pandemic era now exhausted and multiple states having implemented tax cuts recently, stronger state revenues pave the way for this new budgeting phase. Storey warned of “tighter budgets, far more scrutiny, less money for new programs, and fewer resources for problem-solving.”

In addition, Storey highlighted key legislative themes for 2025: workforce development, technology management—particularly concerning artificial intelligence, social media, and cybersecurity—and the ongoing housing crisis. These issues are anticipated to gain traction alongside financial and economic considerations influenced by changes at the federal level.

“We don’t expect the federal government to suddenly have a flurry of legislation,” Storey noted, suggesting that while cultivating substantial law takes time, executive orders may impact states more immediately.

Many states find themselves in a wait-and-see mode regarding potential alterations in immigration policy by President-elect Donald Trump, which could significantly affect local economies and workforce dynamics.

Storey acknowledged, “There’s a whole lot of rhetoric and speculation regarding tariffs and deportations, but there’s considerable awareness that these changes will impact states.”

Building on the previous year’s focus, NCSL projects that states will aim to reduce energy emissions while accommodating rising demands, explore alternatives to traditional gas tax revenues, support military veterans, and tackle issues surrounding affordable childcare and the intersection of Medicaid and the justice system.