Marsh’s Lead Shrinks in Intense LD4 Senate Showdown

The race for the Legislative District 4 Senate seat remains exceedingly tight as of Wednesday morning.

Incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh, a Democrat from Phoenix, holds a slender lead over Republican challenger Carine Werner, with just a 0.04% margin by 11 a.m. Marsh garnered 50.02% of the vote compared to Werner’s 49.98%. Further counting is still underway in the district.

This competition is vital for both parties, given the Senate’s current 16-14 Republican majority. While a victory for Marsh wouldn’t increase Democratic representation, it would serve to maintain their foothold as they aim to gain ground in other districts. Conversely, Republicans view this election as an opportunity to strengthen their standing by taking Marsh’s seat.

A law enacted in 2022 necessitates an automatic recount for races decided by a margin of half a percent or less, which could be relevant as results continue to trickle in.

In the previous election cycle, Marsh defeated former Republican Sen. Nancy Barto by a narrow 1% margin, allowing only Rep. Matt Gress, a Republican, to represent the district in the state legislature.

According to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, LD4 leans Republican, with approximately 3.5% of voters inclined towards GOP candidates, categorizing it as one of the more competitive districts in the state.

Locally, GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin described the district as the “most purple district” in Arizona, emphasizing its evenly divided political landscape.

Werner, currently a member of the Scottsdale Unified School District governing board, is vying for her first legislative term. She runs alongside Gress, whose seat is also a target for Democratic candidates in the state House.

Since 2020, Marsh has represented the Senate seat, having narrowly defeated former Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee after a close race in 2018 where she lost by just 0.2%.