Maricopa’s Population Set to Soar to 1 Million with Future Development, City Reports

The city of Maricopa is on track to reach a projected population of 1 million upon full development, as noted in a recent article by the Phoenix Business Journal. However, this estimate raises questions about its feasibility and underlying assumptions.

Quinn Konold, spokesperson for Maricopa, clarified that the 1 million figure is a theoretical estimate tied to the city’s extensive planning area, which covers around 233 square miles. Currently, only 43 square miles have been developed, with the population hovering around 76,000.

Rick Horst, Chief Strategy Officer for the city, provided additional insights, stating that based on existing housing permits, Maricopa could potentially house over 210,000 residents if these units are built and occupied, excluding any new projects.

Despite the optimistic population projections, Konold emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the timing and manner of growth. He noted that while the city has room for considerable expansion, it is challenging to predict how and when this will occur.

Several ongoing projects could significantly contribute to this envisioned growth. A $100 million waterpark, PHX Surf, is expected to open by late February 2026, promising to be a major attraction.

Development along the Maricopa-Casa Grande Highway, dubbed the Industrial Triangle, involves a $1.4 billion investment. This project will encompass 6 million square feet and could potentially create up to 36,000 jobs.

In another ambitious venture, the University of Arizona has earmarked 2,100 acres for an innovation center that will include a 300-acre research and technology park and a satellite education campus, with construction expected to commence this spring.

The Murphy Park initiative is also notable; this 500-acre community will feature a significant portion of land for business park development and could support nearly 1,870 homes.

Additionally, plans are underway for the Copper Sky medical campus, which is set to span 1.6 million square feet. This facility aims to provide comprehensive medical services and living spaces, following setbacks in securing a developer.

Konold highlighted the city’s commitment to sustainable growth, stating, “We are dedicated to cultivating a community that prioritizes sustainability and resilience.” However, he acknowledged the challenge of reaching the ambitious 1 million population figure without increasing density through vertical residential buildings.

Currently, multifamily housing constitutes less than 2% of Maricopa’s overall housing stock. The city government had previously set a goal for multifamily units to represent one-fourth of total housing by 2019, an aim that remains unmet according to recent assessments.

Despite these challenges, Konold reiterated the city’s broader mission: “Our focus is not solely on population numbers but rather on making informed, sustainable decisions that enhance the quality of life for all residents.”