Little-Known Statehouse Contests Set to Transform Next Year’s Election Landscape

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, many Americans feel the outcome will significantly impact democracy. However, discussions often concentrate on high-profile races while overlooking vital local contests.

State legislative races are poised to alter control in several swing states. These elections could reshape how future elections are conducted at the state level.

Megan Boler Bellamy, vice president of law and policy at Voting Rights Lab, emphasized that most aspects affecting voters—like ballot timing and processing—are determined by state lawmakers. “The makeup of the state legislature is really critical to the voting experience of most citizens,” she stated, underscoring the need for greater attention to these races.

The Voting Rights Lab is closely monitoring legislative actions in states such as Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan regarding election administration, funding, and voter ID requirements. A shift in legislative control could revive stalled election policy initiatives or lead to abrupt changes in current laws, which have significant implications for election officials.

In Pennsylvania, a potential change in the Legislature’s composition could facilitate Democratic initiatives aimed at mail ballot pre-processing or prompt Republican pushes for stricter voter ID laws. Similarly, Michigan’s voters recently amended the state Constitution to expand voting access, but legislative control remains crucial for implementing these changes effectively.

Despite decades of Republican dominance in state legislatures, recent analyses show that Democrats made unexpected gains in 2022, placing them in a more competitive position for upcoming elections. Both parties are acutely aware that shifts in control could impact their legislative agendas significantly.

The Republican State Leadership Committee expressed that regaining control over the majority of state legislative chambers poses a significant long-term threat to the party. They plan to invest $50 million in this election cycle to defend vulnerable races in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

On the Democratic side, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) notes that previous elections have been decided by narrow margins—one Democrat won a seat in Pennsylvania by just 63 votes. This indicates that targeted efforts and grassroots volunteerism could yield substantial results in pivotal districts.

Key battleground states, including Arizona, are the focus of potential shifts in legislative control that could affect voting access. In Arizona, despite the Republican-controlled Legislature’s attempts to overhaul the election process, Democrats may see an opportunity to gain ground and challenge restrictive voting laws.

Significant events, like the recent discovery of a glitch affecting nearly 100,000 voters, underscore the stakes involved. This incident highlighted how local concerns can escalate into broader implications for both state and federal elections.

If Democrats gain control in Arizona, they might pursue efforts to reverse restrictive voting laws. Conversely, if Republicans retain their position, expect proposals to further limit voting access.

In Michigan, the narrow Democratic majority could be jeopardized if Republicans regain control. Polls indicate several races are tightly contested, with legislative gridlock potentially leading to political maneuvering over election laws.

In Pennsylvania, the split Legislature has resulted in legislative gridlock. Power shifts could allow either party to advance their respective election agendas, with significant legislation like voter ID measures hanging in the balance.

In Texas, the new House speaker will be crucial in deciding the fate of proposed election legislation, given the stalled voting proposals from the last session. The race for speaker could dictate the agenda moving forward.

Wisconsin’s Legislature is set for change following new electoral maps, but it’s unlikely that a complete majority will shift this cycle. Depending on the outcome, it could impact which election bills are prioritized in upcoming sessions.

As key state races unfold in 2024, their outcomes could significantly influence election policies nationwide, emphasizing the intertwined nature of local and national politics.