LD17: Leach’s Stunning Victory in Tucson’s Senate Showdown

In Southern Arizona’s tense legislative races, Democrats achieved a notable, though limited, victory amid a challenging environment. They secured one underdog win while falling short in the other Senate and House races they had targeted this year.

In Legislative District 17, Republican Vince Leach was leading Democrat John McLean by 2,690 votes after the recent vote tally. Leach garnered 73,222 votes, compared to McLean’s 70,632. A former state lawmaker, Leach had lost his position in a primary last year but returned to win the GOP primary against current Sen. Justine Wadsack.

McLean, making his inaugural run for office, previously served as CEO of a local defense contractor. In parallel, Democrat Kevin Volk edged out Republican incumbents Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones in the race for two House seats in the district. Volk held 35 percent of the vote, while Jones and McGarr trailed closely at 33 and 32 percent, respectively.

An unknown quantity of votes in this predominantly Republican district remains uncounted. “We put in a hell of an effort,” said Volk at the Democratic Party’s election night gathering. “It’s gonna be a close race. We’ve just got to give it time for an accurate count.”

Legislative District 17 spans precincts in Pinal County’s Saddlebrooke and Pima County’s Oro Valley and Marana, alongside Tucson’s East Side and Vail. As of Tuesday, Pima County had counted 481,807 ballots and estimated around 42,228 votes still needed tabulating, including 2,492 awaiting signature verification and 7,166 provisional ballots that may not count. Sunday marked the final day for voters to “cure” problematic ballots.

In Pinal County, officials had counted 209,921 ballots but had not updated totals since Friday, citing approximately 4,023 remaining, primarily provisional ballots.

Despite a 9-percentage-point voter registration advantage for Republicans in LD 17, Democrats aimed for a breakthrough, buoyed by strong performances in past statewide elections, including victories by Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs in 2022. Strategists argue that the district now hosts some of the most extreme Republican representation in the Legislature.

The state anticipates final tallies by the end of the week, as election officials work to validate remaining mail-in ballots through a rigorous signature check.

LD 17 is crucial for legislative balance, with neighboring areas, Districts 16 and 23, also in play. In District 16, Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman was trailing Republican Chris Lopez by 3,614 votes. His seatmate, Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez, was leading the race for two House seats.

Republican Sen. T.J. Shope maintained a solid lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Seaman in District 16, capturing 56 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, in District 23, Democrats struggled to unseat Republicans, with Michele Peña holding 32,776 votes against Democratic state Rep. Mariana Sandoval’s 30,610 and fellow Democrat Matias Rosales’ 28,766.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Brian Fernandez garnered 52 percent of the vote against Republican Michelle Altherr in District 23, which covers Yuma County, Maricopa County, and extends into Pima County. Yuma County had not updated its tally, still facing a backlog of 24,147 votes to count, with only 66 percent reported nearly a week after Election Day.