LD17: Democrats Hold Strong Lead in Battleground Tucson Area Legislative Contest

In a closely watched race for the Senate seat in Legislative District 17, Democrat John McLean is currently leading Republican Vince Leach by 1,318 votes, according to the latest count from Pima and Pinal counties. As of Thursday evening, McLean had garnered 59,081 votes compared to Leach’s 57,763.

McLean, a first-time candidate and former CEO of a local defense contractor, is positioning himself against Leach, who previously served as a state lawmaker but lost his seat in the 2022 primary to Sen. Justine Wadsack. Leach has since made a comeback, defeating Wadsack in this year’s GOP primary to secure his position.

In the race for two House seats, Democrat Kevin Volk is also ahead of Republican incumbents Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones, with Volk holding 36 percent of the vote, Jones at 33 percent, and McGarr trailing at 32 percent. The margin between Volk and McGarr is approximately 6,764 votes, though the final tally could be affected by uncounted ballots.

Volk expressed optimism during the Democratic Party’s election night gathering at Hotel Congress, acknowledging the close competition. He urged patience as election officials continue to process votes.

The boundaries of LD17 encompass precincts in Pinal County’s Saddlebrooke and Pima County’s Oro Valley and Marana, along with areas in Tucson and Vail. The latest vote totals reflect all in-person ballots cast on Election Day and an array of early ballots. Pima County officials estimate that around 136,928 ballots remain to be counted, while Pinal County has 24,262 left to process.

Despite a 9-percentage-point voter registration advantage for Republicans in LD17, Democratic strategists remain hopeful. Previous victories by Democrats Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs, and Adrian Fontes in the district during the 2022 elections have fueled aspirations for a shift in representation.

As final counts are expected to unfold into next week, state election officials are focused on validating remaining vote-by-mail ballots through signature verification, a process anticipated to take place throughout the weekend.

LD17 is critical for determining the balance of power in the Legislature for the upcoming term, alongside Legislative Districts 16 and 23. Early indicators suggest that Democrats may lose a House seat in one of these districts while struggling to unseat a GOP incumbent in another.

In District 16, Republican Chris Lopez continues to extend his lead over Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman, now ahead by 3,912 votes. Lopez’s seatmate, Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez, is also performing well in the House race.

Moving on to Legislative District 23, Democrats are facing challenges in their effort to flip a Republican seat. Republican Michele Peña tallied 26,035 votes, while Democratic state Rep. Mariana Sandoval received 23,702 votes and fellow Democrat Matias Rosales garnered 22,287 votes. Additionally, Democratic incumbent Sen. Brian Fernandez leads with 51 percent of the vote against Republican Michelle Altherr.

Legislative District 23 is primarily located in Yuma County, with a significant portion of voters residing in rural and suburban areas of Maricopa County.