Lake Powell Surges to Highest Level in Over 3 Years

Stepped-up water conservation and a run of wet weather have raised Lake Powell to its highest level in well over three years. Despite this year’s runoff being below average, the lake has made a significant recovery.

As of Thursday, Lake Powell stood at 3,586 feet, marking an increase of over 60 feet from early 2023. Earlier this year, the lake had fallen to a record low, threatening Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to generate electricity. Fortunately, the lake is now well above that critical level.

The current level of Lake Powell stands at 42% full, a notable rise from 23% in February 2023 and 35% late last year. This has significantly reduced the risk of severe cutbacks in water deliveries to Arizona, California, and Nevada. Powell’s resurgence has also allowed the reopening of several recreational facilities that were closed due to low water levels in 2022, including a ferry run by the state of Utah, which reopened on July 4.

Several factors contributed to the lake’s recovery. Agreements between Arizona and California water users and the federal government have saved considerable water in the past year. This conservation effort slashed Arizona’s take from the Colorado River to its lowest level since 1991. Nevada experienced its lowest level since 1992, while California’s use in 2023 appeared to be the lowest since the late 1940s. These efforts by the Lower Basin states have significantly reduced their water usage since the early 2000s.

However, experts advise caution. The total amount of water stored in Powell and other river reservoirs has not returned to the levels seen between 2005 and 2019. Lake Powell is currently at about the same level as it was in early 2021, just before it sharply declined for the next two years.

Looking forward, the upcoming La Niña winter-2024-25 season could bring dry conditions to the Southwest, which would impact the Colorado River Basin’s water levels. Experts warn that while recent conservation efforts have helped, a few consecutive dry years could plunge the lake back into crisis mode.

The federal Colorado River Basin Forecast Center predicts April through July runoff into Powell will be 84% of normal, down from 166% in 2023. However, good snowpack in the Upper Basin and generous June rainfall contributed positively. The river basin’s reservoirs gained about 2.5 million acre-feet more water for storage from April through July, making modest but significant progress.

Despite these gains, the long-term challenge remains. The Colorado River has averaged only about 12 million acre-feet a year of total flows since 2000. This leaves the seven basin states grappling with how to resolve this deficit.

While recent conservation efforts have made strides, future water supplies could still be endangered by unpredictable weather patterns influenced by climate change, El Niño, and La Niña years. The Bureau of Reclamation’s latest forecast predicts gradual declines in water levels until next spring, followed by a rise by summer 2025. Yet, these forecasts often rely on average precipitation and runoff, which may not account for the variability we’ve seen in recent years.