Immigration Fuels Surge in National Population Growth

A recent influx of immigrants has been observed across all states, counterbalancing a decline in U.S. births and adding approximately 3.3 million new residents, as per the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

Texas and Florida have emerged as the leading states in population growth, accounting for over 1 million newcomers between mid-2023 and mid-2024. Together, these two states represented nearly a third of the nationwide population increase, which reflects births, deaths, and the movement of residents.

The new data indicates a considerable rise in population compared to previous years, with an increase of 2.8 million in 2023 and 1.9 million in 2022. The current growth marks the largest single-year boost since 2001, largely driven by a 21% rise in net immigration.

Immigration has significantly influenced population shifts, contributing to nearly all growth in 18 states this year, according to analysis by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. “This underscores immigration’s critical role across a broad spectrum of the U.S.,” Frey pointed out. He added that areas experiencing low fertility and high mortality rates will particularly benefit from these newcomers.

Growth in immigration varied widely, with notable increases such as 69,000 in both Florida and California and 57,000 in Texas. Meanwhile, states like Montana and Wyoming saw only modest gains. Notably, Alaska experienced a 19% increase in its immigrant population, while Montana reported a staggering growth of 36%.

Some states, including California and Illinois, previously faced declines in population earlier this decade. Their recent growth may help mitigate anticipated losses in congressional representation post-2030 census. If trends persist, California may lose only three congressional seats instead of four, while Illinois could reduce its potential loss from two seats to one, according to election data expert Kimball Brace.

Nonetheless, Florida’s population growth has decelerated slightly, potentially resulting in a gain of three congressional seats instead of the previously expected four. Brace noted, “Immigration is clearly influencing these trends, shifting perceptions regarding California’s population trajectory.”

Between July 2023 and July 2024, California recorded a population increase of around 233,000, leading the nation in new residents due to immigration and internal migration. North Carolina followed with an addition of 165,000 and New York with 130,000. Illinois and Louisiana also experienced population boosts of approximately 68,000 and 9,700, respectively.

In terms of percentage change, Florida and Texas led with around a 2% increase, with Utah (1.8%), South Carolina and Nevada (both at 1.7%), and Idaho and North Carolina (both at 1.5%) trailing closely. Only West Virginia, Vermont, and Mississippi showed minimal population losses this year.

In Texas, significant housing developments occurred in Houston, Austin, and Dallas, which together accounted for nearly 40,000 new housing units. Collin County, a suburb of Dallas, was identified as a fast-growing area, adding over 16,000 new units last year, totaling nearly 64,000 since 2020.

Florida’s growth has primarily focused on Jacksonville, Port St. Lucie, Miami, Tampa, and Orlando, as evidenced by a recent state report. Additionally, several states, including New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, have experienced growth primarily attributed to a surplus of births over deaths.

In New York City, enhanced housing initiatives have mitigated population losses from out-migration. Jan Vink from Cornell University highlighted this as a positive indication for the state’s demographic future, despite warnings of potential population declines due to low fertility rates unless mitigated by immigration.

While Texas, the Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee recorded the highest influx of residents relocating from other states, these numbers have diminished from previous years as rising interest rates and housing costs have led many to delay their moves.