How Will Empowered GOP Majorities in AZ Legislature Challenge Hobbs in 2025?

Republican leaders in Arizona are gearing up for a transformative legislative session, following significant electoral victories. With strengthened majorities in both chambers and Donald Trump’s triumph at the ballot box, a shift in the political landscape at the Capitol appears imminent.

Despite these gains, Republicans will continue to navigate a politically divided environment, working alongside Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, who holds veto power over proposed legislation. This dynamic raises questions about the potential for collaboration between the two parties over the next two years.

Legislative leaders from both parties acknowledge that Republicans, motivated by their recent successes, will focus on key issues that resonated during their campaigns. However, the extent to which they will pursue bipartisan support remains uncertain, as the threat of vetoes from Hobbs looms over many proposals.

Scott A. Smith, a seasoned lobbyist and former chief of staff for GOP Governor Jan Brewer, expressed confidence in the unity among Republican caucuses in the upcoming session. He attributed this cohesion to the electoral victories and the Republicans’ improved standing in the legislature, where they gained a Senate seat and two seats in the House.

Senate President Pro Tem T.J. Shope outlined the primary objectives for the Republican majority, which include initiatives aimed at tax relief, immigration reform, expedited election results, and addressing water supply challenges in Arizona. “We ran on trying to bring costs down for everyday Arizonans, and that’s something that we’re going to work on right away,” Shope stated.

While Republicans appear poised for a proactive legislative agenda, they must tread carefully. Shope noted that lawmakers may exhibit more restraint in introducing “statement bills,” which are unlikely to advance through the legislative process or receive the Governor’s approval. Notably, Hobbs vetoed a record 143 bills in her first year and 73 in her second.

Amid this backdrop, Shope highlighted the passage of Proposition 314, which was approved by 61% of voters. This measure would make it a state crime for migrants to cross Arizona’s southern border and empower local law enforcement to intervene. However, its implementation remains uncertain due to ongoing litigation surrounding similar laws in Texas.

Democratic leaders are preparing for the upcoming session with a focus on maintaining school funding, addressing housing costs, and ensuring sustainable water resources. In stark contrast to the GOP’s assertive agenda, Democrats face the challenge of countering extreme legislative proposals from the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus. This caucus has gained influence, pushing the party further to the right since its formation in 2022.

Senate Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan expressed concerns about the potential for heightened political polarization in the legislature. “I do anticipate that they will be pushing some pretty extreme policies to the governor that will need to be met with a veto stamp,” she warned.

Governor Hobbs remains open to collaboration but is steadfast against proposals that could harm marginalized communities, particularly regarding immigration reform and LGBTQ+ rights. She called for a focus on common ground in her statement following the election, signaling her readiness to negotiate on significant statewide issues.

As both parties prepare for an intense legislative session, the future of state laws—and the relationships among lawmakers—hangs in the balance. The demand for effective governance remains, as leaders from both sides emphasize the necessity of addressing the pressing issues facing Arizonans.

Looking ahead, the legislative session is set to unfold with a mix of promise and contention, as the interplay of partisan interests shapes the path forward for the state.