Groundbreaking Results of the Largest Guaranteed Income Study Unveiled

This article was originally published by The 19th.

After eight years of meticulous research, OpenResearch, a nonprofit lab founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, has released the most extensive study on guaranteed income programs to date. The study followed 3,000 participants across Illinois and Texas from 2020 to 2023, assessing the impact of monthly cash transfers on their lives.

Conducted independently from Altman and OpenAI, but with significant funding from them, the study divided participants into two groups. One group received $1,000 per month for three years, while a control group received $50 per month. This experiment aimed to provide nuanced insights into how regular cash payments can transform low-income individuals’ lives.

Findings published in the National Bureau of Economic Research reveal substantial benefits for those receiving the higher amount. Participants spent more on essential needs such as food, rent, and transportation. They also provided more financial support to family members, indicating the broader positive impacts of guaranteed income beyond individual beneficiaries.

The extra monthly income allowed many participants to escape the cycle of living paycheck to paycheck. Karina Dotson, OpenResearch’s research and insights manager, noted that the stipends provided a “sense of self,” enabling participants to envision a future they previously couldn’t.

Contrary to critics’ concerns that guaranteed income might disincentivize work, the study found minimal adverse effects on employment. Participants who received $1,000 worked about 1.3 fewer hours per week, but this reduction was often due to pursuing education or job training, particularly among those under 30. Single parents in the $1,000 group were more likely to leave their jobs or reduce their working hours to focus on childcare.

Luke Shaefer, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan, emphasized that cash transfers didn’t lead to a mass exodus from the workforce. The flexibility provided by additional income allowed some participants to take on more fulfilling or strategic job opportunities, which often led to better-paying roles down the line.

The study’s context—the COVID-19 pandemic—highlighted the volatility participants faced, losing jobs and childcare while balancing enhanced government assistance. Taylor Jo Isenberg from the Economic Security Project stressed the importance of understanding these dynamics when assessing the data.

Guaranteed income has historically been seen as a tool to support marginalized groups, including communities of color, women, and LGBTQ+ individuals. The study found that such programs enable individuals to define their paths, whether that involves entrepreneurship, education, or other personal goals. For instance, Black participants and women in the $1,000-a-month group were more likely to start or assist startups.

While additional cash solved specific immediate needs, it couldn’t address larger systemic issues like health care access or housing. However, the stipend did result in small improvements, such as increased emergency room visits and dental checkups.

Programs like Flint, Michigan’s Rx Kids, which provides cash during pregnancy and early childhood, offer a framework for targeted cash transfers. Expanded child tax credits have shown similar promise, though their long-term implementation remains uncertain due to legislative challenges.

With comprehensive data now in hand, researchers like Shaefer are refining how guaranteed income programs can achieve more targeted outcomes. The detailed analysis of OpenResearch’s data, expected later this year, will delve further into these impacts, particularly on children, shaping future policy discussions.