Fierce Contests Might Result in a Deadlocked Senate

With Democrats aiming to flip the Legislature and Republicans defending their slim majority, consultants predict the Senate could see an equally split chamber for the first time since 2000.

The 2022 legislative districting map has fostered highly competitive general races in key districts, prompting similar campaign strategies on both sides.

After more than 20 years of Republican control, Democrats are aggressively vying for the majority. While the GOP majority has dwindled over the past decade, Republican candidates secured a two-seat lead in both the House and Senate in the 2022 general election.

With most primary election results in, GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin stated the Senate could see an even split for the first time in over two decades. Currently, Republicans hold a 16-14 majority, but intense Democratic campaigns are targeting every potentially winnable district.

Democrats are fielding heavily-funded candidates in six closely-contested Senate races. Campaigns from both parties urge voters to reject their opposition’s candidates as “too extreme” for their respective districts.

In the Republican-leaning Legislative District 17, former lawmaker Vince Leach defeated incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack in the GOP primary. Leach is considered less controversial than Wadsack, which could ease Democratic challenges in this district, Coughlin noted.

Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, also foresees a tight battle for the majority, likening Democrats’ chances of a tie to a “field goal moved to the 50-yard line—not impossible, but a challenge.”

Despite Leach being perceived as a stronger candidate, the Arizona Democratic legislative campaign committee labeled him as “one of the most extreme legislators in his party” who prioritizes special interests. His Democratic opponent is businessman John McLean.

The Democratic committee is employing similar tactics in battleground districts statewide, advocating for the less “extreme” candidates, although most target districts lean slightly Republican.

Both Noble and Coughlin suggest the outcome could hinge on Legislative District 2, a highly competitive area that leans marginally Republican according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. Sen. Shawnna Bolick, the GOP incumbent of LD2, beat her primary challenger by a 7% margin. Democrats view this Senate seat, with candidate Rep. Judy Schwiebert, as their top pickup opportunity.

Democratic political action committees have heavily funded Schwiebert’s campaign, contributing thousands. As of pre-primary finance reports, Bolick had $164,386 on hand, while Schwiebert had nearly double at $327,518.

The Republican Arizona Senate Victory Fund PAC launched their “reject extremism” campaign on Aug. 6, specifically targeting Legislative District 4. This slightly GOP-leaning district is represented by Democrat incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh, dubbed “Extreme Christine” by opposition.

The “Extreme Christine” campaign strategy mimics its Democratic counterparts by listing Marsh’s voting records on divisive issues such as immigration, school choice, and taxes, urging voters to “send extreme Christine home.”

Historically, the only time a chamber was tied in Arizona occurred in the Senate from 2001 to 2002, following the Republicans’ loss of majority in the 2000 general election. During this period, Democratic lawmakers successfully negotiated with former Sen. Randall Gnant, a Republican, to lead the chamber under the condition that committees be equally split.

In a 2011 interview with the Arizona Memory Project, former state Sen. Pete Rios recounted how Democrats convinced Gnant to take on the role: “I said, ‘Randall, if you say you’re going to do it, you’re going to do it, and we’re not leaving here until we sign this thing in blood.’” He added, “Once we leave here, you’re going to be president, you’re going to take a lot of heat…so you better be ready.”