Despite Trump’s Assertions, Experts Warn Deportations Won’t Solve Housing Crisis

The anticipated mass deportations of undocumented immigrants promised by President-elect Donald Trump are unlikely to alleviate the United States’ housing crisis, according to housing and immigration experts. Despite assertions made during his campaign, experts argue that deportations would not impact the housing market as significantly as claimed.

Undocumented immigrants typically reside in low-income rental units, often sharing households with multiple generations due to financial constraints. Their presence is crucial in the construction sector, where their labor plays an essential role in building new homes. Trump’s framing of immigration as a primary driver of the housing crisis has been met with skepticism from experts.

During a September rally in Arizona, Trump stated, “Immigration is driving housing costs through the roof.” Similarly, U.S. Senator J.D. Vance emphasized the competition between immigrants and Americans for limited housing in a recent debate. However, both claims lack substantive backing from numerous housing and immigration analysts.

Experts contend that the correlation between immigration and housing affordability is complex. While immigration has some influence on housing demand, large-scale deportations would likely worsen labor shortages in construction. Many undocumented immigrants lack access to mortgages, relying instead on affordable rental options, which contribute to multigenerational living situations, according to Riordan Frost, a senior research analyst at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Pew Research indicates that over 22 million individuals lived in households with at least one undocumented immigrant in 2022, representing a mere 4.8% of the country’s total households. Despite the political rhetoric, Frost asserts that housing availability for one demographic does not necessarily diminish opportunities for another.

As the American population ages and birth rates decline, experts argue the U.S. will increasingly depend on immigrant labor to sustain growth. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that net immigration will account for all population growth by 2040. While some suggest that deporting millions of immigrants could ease housing demand, this simplistic view ignores broader economic factors, including land costs and ineffective housing programs.

Edward Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute acknowledges that while deportations might free up some housing, they would not remedy the housing crisis alone, which is also shaped by structural issues. Nonetheless, Pinto notes that Americans have expressed support for deportation initiatives, aligning with Trump’s proposed focus on removing undocumented individuals with criminal records.

Real estate professionals warn that deportations could negatively impact rental property owners, particularly in low-income neighborhoods. Jeff Lichtenstein, a real estate broker in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, highlighted the potential ripple effects: falling rental prices in low-income areas could depress prices across all rental categories and affect home sales adversely.

The construction industry, heavily reliant on immigrant workers, may face significant challenges if mass deportations occur. Data from the National Association of Home Builders indicates that immigrants constitute at least 40% of the construction workforce in states like California and Texas, with crucial roles in various trades.

Renata Castro, an immigration attorney in Florida, warned that labor shortages could delay essential home repairs in disaster-prone areas, ultimately leading to increased insurance costs after storms. The demand for diverse labor in construction remains high, yet many Americans are unwilling to undertake these positions, perpetuating reliance on immigrant labor.