Democrats Dominate Southern AZ Districts Yet Suffer Legislative Losses

In a significant development from the 2024 election ballots, Southern Arizona’s Democrats secured a notable victory in Legislative District 17, while conceding a seat in the neighboring Legislative District 16. This mixed outcome highlights the shifting political landscape in the region.

Statewide, Republicans strengthened their hold within the legislature, gaining an additional seat in both the House and the Senate. The GOP now boasts 32 of the 60 House seats and 17 of the 30 Senate seats across Arizona. Remarkably, these gains occurred despite Democratic expenditures exceeding $10 million in pivotal districts statewide.

In Legislative District 16, Democrats faced a setback as incumbent Keith Seaman lost his reelection bid. Seaman had previously captured a surprising victory in the 2022 cycle, but this time he fell short. Republican Teresa Martinez led the vote count with 36%, followed closely by Chris Lopez at 33%. Seaman managed only 31%, trailing Lopez by a substantial margin of 3,655 votes. In the Senate race, Republican TJ Shope secured 56% over Stacey Seaman, giving the GOP another win in this historically conservative district.

Most voters in LD 16 reside in Pinal County, with about 17% in northwestern Pima County. As of November 5, 34% of registered voters in this district identified as Republican, 28% as Democrat, and 38% as independents.

In contrast, Legislative District 17 saw a successful Democratic challenge, with Kevin Volk defeating Republican Cory McGarr by 5,081 votes. Volk garnered 34% of the vote, edging out McGarr, who received 32%, and Republican incumbent Rachel Jones, who won 33%. Voter registration figures reveal that 38% of LD 17’s voters are Republicans, 28% Democrats, and 34% independents. This district encompasses regions in both Pinal and Pima Counties.

In the Senate race, Republican Vince Leach achieved a victory with 51%, following a tragic event surrounding his opponent, Democrat John McLean, who passed away in a car accident just days before the election.

Legislative District 18 retains its Democratic delegation, with Sen. Priya Sundareshan running unopposed. In the House, Rep. Nancy Gutierrez won 39%, and Rep. Chris Mathis secured 36%, defeating Republican Len Rosenblum, who received 26%. LD 18 is predominantly urban and suburban, with a Democratic majority of 40% compared to 27% Republican registration.

District 19 saw no changes in its Republican representation. Sen. David Gowan won his fourth term with 63% of the vote against Democrat Bob Karp. Meanwhile, Reps. Gail Griffin and Lupe Diaz also gained substantial support against their Democratic rival, continuing the district’s GOP trend.

In District 20, all Democratic candidates were unopposed. The district, primarily located in Tucson’s west side, maintains a significant Democratic presence with 47% registered voters from the party.

Voters in District 21 also supported their incumbent Democratic officials. Sen. Rosanna Gabaldon was reelected without opposition and will serve as the minority whip. In the House, both Rep. Consuelo Hernandez and Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton triumphed over their Republican challenger, solidifying the Democratic foothold in this district, which includes central Tucson and several Southern Arizona communities.

Lastly, in Legislative District 23, Democrats fell short in their attempt to flip a House seat. Republican Michele Peña secured 35% of the vote, closely followed by Democrat Mariana Sandoval at 34%. In another sign of the district’s competitive nature, Sen. Brian Fernandez overcame Republican Michelle Altherr with 53% of the vote.

Legislative District 23, spanning regions from Yuma County to areas within Pima County, presents a diverse electorate with 42% independents able to influence election outcomes.