Control of Congress at Stake as Presidential Race Heats Up

WASHINGTON — The 2024 congressional elections will hinge on a limited number of crucial Senate races and several pivotal House seats. This high-stakes landscape intensifies as party leaders and super PACs direct millions into candidates’ campaigns, amplifying the pressure to sway voters.

Incumbents in competitive districts face an uphill battle, with only three weeks of congressional sessions left before the November 5 election. They will devote their efforts to campaigning while challengers capitalize on their home-front presence.

Republicans aim to bolster their slender House majority and flip the Senate. Conversely, Democrats seek to maintain their Senate control and reclaim the House. The stakes underscore a fierce competition at both levels of government, with implications for the presidential race.

Political experts suggest that key factors influencing voter turnout will include ticket splitting and the evolving presidential campaign. The recent nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate after President Biden’s exit has shifted dynamics, creating uncertainty about the election’s outcome.

“Energy is palpable for both sides as margins tighten in the House and Senate,” remarked Casey Burgat, an assistant professor at George Washington University. “Every vote will count.”

Current Senate control is leaning toward Republicans, but the races in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio are categorized as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Republican gains in any of these states could solidify a 51-seat majority for the GOP, especially with Joe Manchin III’s seat in West Virginia expected to flip.

On the flip side, Democrats are focused on retaining those crucial four seats alongside three others deemed “lean Democrat.” These outcomes will be closely tied to the results of the presidential race, where the vice president holds tie-breaking power in a 50-50 Senate.

In Montana, Democratic Senator Jon Tester faces significant challenges. According to Robert Saldin, a political science professor, Tester must attract Trump supporters to split tickets in order to survive. “He must demonstrate distinction from common Democratic stereotypes,” Saldin noted, especially with Trump on the ballot.

Republican Tim Sheehy, Tester’s challenger, may benefit from the state’s Republican lean, but he confronts hurdles, including a lack of experience in competitive primaries. “He’s an unknown, entering a high-stakes contest without prior practice,” Saldin explained.

Abortion access may become a leverage point for Tester, as a ballot question could influence voter behavior. This is a crucial aspect in many states, including Arizona and Florida, where reproductive rights measures are set for consideration.

In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is distancing himself from national politics in his reelection bid. “He seeks to localize the contest, avoiding association with national Democratic figures,” said Paul A. Beck, a political science professor at The Ohio State University. Brown faces a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno while also relying on ballot questions about redistricting to potentially drive turnout.

Historically, incumbents enjoy a significant advantage, with House reelection rates often above 85%. Miro Hall-Jones from OpenSecrets noted that while Senate incumbents remain vulnerable, they typically retain seats at a high rate since 1990.

Michigan and Arizona present unique challenges for Democrats as their current senators retire, leading to open seats that shift the electoral balance. Both states are currently considered competitive, with Michigan listed as a toss-up and Arizona leaning Democrat.

The House landscape is razor thin. Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to seize control from Republicans, who currently hold a slim margin. “The outcome will be tightly contested,” Burgat said, reflecting on the competitive nature of the races ahead.

With 44 House races deemed competitive, both parties plan to focus resources on races that are leaning in their favor, while the DCCC launches significant ad campaigns targeting critical districts. The committee’s $28 million initial ad buy showcases their strategy to regain lost ground.

Key contests include open seats in California, Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia—all closely watched by party strategists. In addition, Democrats are targeting districts that Biden won in 2020, further complicating the Republican incumbents’ efforts.

However, vulnerable Democratic incumbents are also in the spotlight, with 31 identified as “frontline” candidates in purple districts. The National Republican Congressional Committee has announced substantial ad buys aimed at both retaining their seats and flipping Democratic-held districts.

The election season is shaping up to be one of considerable complexity, with both parties engaging in fierce battles for control over the House and Senate.