Assad’s Departure Leaves Syria in Shambles: A Daunting Path to Stability Ahead

The Assad family’s 54-year grip on power in Syria appears to have ended as opposition forces achieved significant victories. Just days ago, Aleppo fell to these forces, which continued their advance into Hama, Homs, and ultimately Damascus by December 7, 2024. This swift change comes after a protracted civil war that had largely been stagnant since a 2020 ceasefire facilitated by Russia and Turkey.

Reports indicate that President Bashar al-Assad may have resigned and fled the country. However, his departure leaves many questions about Syria’s future. An expert in Middle East security emphasizes that the unity of opposition forces will be crucial as the region transitions away from Assad’s regime. The conflict has historically featured fractious opposition groups hindered by internal ideological divisions and conflicting foreign interests.

The recent offensive has raised alarms among Syria’s international backers. The withdraw of critical allies, such as Russia and Iran, has significantly limited Assad’s ability to retaliate. With Russia’s focus diverted to Ukraine and Iranian military resources stretched due to regional conflicts, Assad was left vulnerable. On December 2, Russian naval forces began their withdrawal from Tartus, further diminishing Assad’s support structure.

For the United States, diminished Russian and Iranian influence could be seen as a positive development. Nevertheless, concerns loom over a potential scenario where an Islamist faction could replace Assad, aligning with groups viewed as terrorist organizations in the West. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a key player in the recent opposition advancements, has spearheaded many efforts, working in coalition with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.

Syria’s fractured state symbolizes the complexities ahead. Various opposition groups control distinct regions—Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed forces in the northwest, while the northeast is governed by the U.S.-supported Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Although the shared goal is to remove Assad, conflicts among these factions persist, complicating the potential for cohesive governance.

Assad’s downfall signals major changes for geopolitical strategies in the region. Iran’s efforts to link Tehran to Beirut through Damascus face a significant setback. The Biden administration’s strategies have revolved around curbing Russian and Iranian influence but did not explicitly aim for Assad’s removal—conversations about easing sanctions hinged on his distancing from Iran and Hezbollah.

As the Syrian Democratic Forces evaluate their position in the new landscape, they may need to forge new alliances. This comes amid speculation of U.S. troop withdrawal, raising concerns over their security and the region’s stability. Should American forces exit, the Kurdish-led group will face challenges in negotiating their autonomy with both opposition factions and Turkey, which has a history of military operations against Kurdish forces.

The Kurdish and Islamist dynamics in this transitional phase could create foreign policy complications for the U.S. Turkey’s history of involvement against the Kurdish groups may force alignments that were previously unthinkable. Of note, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has sought to moderate its image, attempting to broaden its appeal to international players despite its militant roots.

Turkey’s own challenges in Syria are compounded by the refugee crisis, as it hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees. President Erdogan has signaled a willingness to normalize relations with Assad; however, these overtures were met with a strong response from the Assad regime, which escalated military action in Idlib.

The potential end of the Assad dynasty opens doors for a renewed future in Syria. This transition presents an opportunity to build a nation characterized by inclusivity and stability. The success of this endeavor hinges on the opposition’s ability to unify, address historical grievances, and establish a governance framework reflecting Syria’s rich diversity. Achieving this ideal will not be straightforward, and the path ahead remains fraught with challenges.